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Good morning, folks! I hate to be the bearer of bad news the morning after Kentucky beat Tennessee, but significant rainfall is expected over the next 7 days.
Gloomy Sunday
What a surprise! We are waking up to widespread rainfall out there. This has become pretty second nature at this point, so we should anticipate waking up to rain now.
This developed along a warm front extending across our region ahead of a weak low pressure system across the Missouri Valley. The heaviest rainfall is currently moving to our northwest.
Despite this, clouds will still hang tough across the region today. This will keep temperatures in the mid and upper 40s at best, creating quite the gloomy day out there.
Showers will still hang around the region as a surface low establishes itself better to our north and draws a cold front eastward. These won’t be heavy showers, luckily.
Rain will be on the way out as we head towards your Monday.
Monday Looks Dry
Well, if there is one thing positive about this forecast, it is that Monday is looking pretty nice. At least there won’t be rain.
You should enjoy it. The President’s can be celebrated without an umbrella or a rain jacket, and if President’s Day was any other day this week, I wouldn’t be able to say that.
Highs on Monday looks to be chilly under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies, with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Not too shabby a day, but ultimately, not what we need to prepare ourselves for a week full of rain.
Tuesday Through Late Week
Okay, this seems like a long period of time, but it is a necessary thing because I am expecting heavy rain to fall between Tuesday night and at least Saturday.
It is really concerning for a couple of reasons: one, we already have significant river and creek flooding across the region, and two, grounds are saturated region-wide, so flash flooding is expected to be an issue.
The pattern this entire week is very impressive and favorable for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. We have a deep upper level trough that is expected to set up across the western US, and this will help foster lift across our region.
That looks to stay in place, and get reinforced, until early weekend when it pushes eastward. Underneath this, we’ll have a pool of very high moisture values just to our south that will get pushed northward and help create efficient, heavy rainfall.
So, there are 3 distinct periods of intense rainfall we’re expecting:
- Tuesday night through Wednesday
- Thursday night through Friday
- Saturday and Sunday
Obviously, confidence decreases significantly the further from the present that we get. I am much more confident in 1 than 3, but am confident enough in the pattern to mention 3.
Anyways, so you have a forecast for Tuesday, expect thick cloud cover and chilly temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s north of a strong warm front pushing northward.
Expect rain to quickly increase in coverage on Tuesday night. There is indication that an axis of heavy rainfall will set up along the interface of the warm and “cold” front, and where this happens, significant, short term rain accumulation is expected to occur.
Right now, I expect that to be *just* southeast of here, closer to Nashville and middle TN. Even so, a general 1-3″ can be expected with the first rain event. But, this is about the 7 Day total accumulation, considering we’ll have rain on rain on rain. Check out the latest WPC forecast:
This is significant. If you live along a river, I would prepare for a longer duration flooding event. This has been building for several weeks, and this feels like a major culmination of something meteorologists have been worried about.
We will continue to update throughout the week, but we are looking at a major rainfall event over the next week in the region.
Well, folks, have a wonderful Sunday! Be sure to follow @wxornotBG on Facebook and Twitter for the latest information.