More About Irma and How Its Impacts Are Already Being Felt

We are starting to see the effects of Tropical Storm Irma now in south-central Kentucky. Looking at satellite and webcams, the region is socked in under cloudy skies emanating from the center of Irma.

GOES 16 Visible Satellite - College of DuPage — GOES 16 Visible Satellite – College of DuPage

View from the D93 WDNS SkyCam in downtown Bowling Green

View from the Hill - White Squirrel Weather — View from the Hill – White Squirrel Weather

Not just cloudy weather is impacting the region, but the wind is also a response to Irma as well. According to the Kentucky Mesonet northeast wind can be felt across the entire state at the noon hour. This fits the counter-clockwise flow around Irma perfectly.

Windstream Map - College of DuPage — Windstream Map – College of DuPage

Noon Wind Speed/Direction - Kentucky Mesonet — Noon Wind Speed/Direction – Kentucky Mesonet

So What Happens Now?

Despite hi-res models hinting at afternoon showers across the region, I think we’ll remain dry. There’s a dry layer above the surface that will take some time to fill in. Thus, a few sprinkles may be possible, but I think we’ll remain dry for the most part despite mostly cloudy skies.

Nashville, TN Observed Sounding - Valid 7 AM - NOAA SPC — Nashville, TN Observed Sounding – Valid 7 AM – NOAA SPC

Temperatures are currently in the mid 60s across the region. It seems reasonable that temperatures may top out in the upper 60s to around 70° today. The main story will be the increasing wind through the afternoon and evening.

HRRR Model Forecast Wind Gusts - Valid Thru 7 PM - College of DuPage — HRRR Model Forecast Wind Gusts – Valid Thru 7 PM – College of DuPage

Overnight

Current thinking is that rainfall will start around 10 PM. Wind speeds will increase as the center of the remnants of Irma spread closer to the region. Wind gusts will be strongest just after midnight as the first wave of heavy rain approaches the region. Northeast winds sustained around 20 – 25 mph could gust to around 40 mph.

Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 10 PM to 7 AM - College of DuPage — Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar – Valid 10 PM to 7 AM – College of DuPage

Hi-Res NAM Forecast Wind Gusts - Valid 2 AM - College of DuPage — Hi-Res NAM Forecast Wind Gusts – Valid 2 AM – College of DuPage

Overall Irma Impacts

The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center sends the remnants of Irma to the west of us by 8 AM Wednesday. Irma is then forecast to weaken and dissolve into an upper wave before moving out of the region completely.

Fortunately, Irma will be weakening rapidly over the next few days and moving quite a bit faster. This will cut down significantly on rain totals. This should not be anywhere near the event that Harvey was for the region. Event total rainfall over the next few days will be between 1″ to 1.5″ across the region.

If a few showers or sprinkles do form, be sure to follow @wxornotBG for the details. Have a great afternoon!