Summer Returns to End Work Week

wxornotBG, 6/28/17: Warm up begins today; active pattern Friday and Saturday

Publicado por Landon Hampton em Quarta, 28 de junho de 2017

Today – Mostly Sunny – High 85° / Tonight – Mostly Clear – Low 67°

Surface high pressure will move to the south and east of the region today. This will lead to more southerly surface flow. This will also lead to height rises and thickening of the atmosphere, meaning it’s going to be a bit warmer across the region today.

GFS Model Forecast Surface Pressure and Temps - Valid Today - College of DuPage
GFS Model Forecast Surface Pressure and Temps – Valid Today – College of DuPage

Highs will top out in the mid 80s across the area. However, the humidity won’t quite be in place yet, so it won’t feel too uncomfortable out there. Be sure to get out and soak in the good weather if you can!

Soak it up like a sponge, or a super sponge. h/t giphy.com
Soak it up like a sponge, or a super sponge. h/t giphy.com

Mostly clear skies will be in place most of the day. This should continue overnight as lows drop to only the mid and upper 60s. Compare that to the lows in the mid 50s of last night.

Thursday – Partly Cloudy & Isolated Storms – High 87° / Thur Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 71°

As southerly flow continues into Thursday, more prominent moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is expected. Southerly winds of 5 – 10 mph will bring abundant moisture into the region. Precipitable water values should return to normal by the afternoon.

NAM Model Forecast Precipitable Water Values - Valid Thursday - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Precipitable Water Values – Valid Thursday – College of DuPage

With more moisture in the region, a few isolated thunderstorms may be possible during the heat of the afternoon. No severe weather is expected at this time. The Hi-Res NAM provides a good example of just how isolated these will be. Not everyone will see rain if they do indeed form.

Hi-Res NAM Model Simulated Radar - Valid Thursday Afternoon - College of DuPage
Hi-Res NAM Model Simulated Radar – Valid Thursday Afternoon – College of DuPage

Any showers and thunderstorms should diminish by sunset. This will leave us with partly cloudy skies and lows in the low 70s.

Friday – Partly Cloudy & Isolated Storms – High 87° / Fri Night – Scattered Storms – Low 71°

A cold front will approach the region on Friday. Moisture should continue to pool ahead of the front thanks to the continued southerly flow. There are some signs that a prefrontal trough could kick a few storms up in the heat of the afternoon. However, these should remain fairly isolated as most of the forcing remains to the west with the front. Highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s.

That's not too bad considering the week we've had. h/t giphy.com
That’s not too bad considering the week we’ve had. h/t giphy.com

Scattered storms will be likely overnight as the cold front approaches the region. Although CAPE values will be fairly diminished after sunset, a few storms could still be strong simply due to the convective signal. The 588 height line will be parked pretty close to Bowling Green, which means that a complex of storms may generally follow this line. If a complex forms and can sustain itself, a few gusty winds may be possible as the storms move through. Lows will be in the low 70s.

NAM Model Forecast 500mb Flow - Valid Friday Night - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 500mb Flow – Valid Friday Night – College of DuPage

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Also check out Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather vlogs! Have a great day!