Hump Day Forecast

wxornotBG 5/10/17: Another sunny, beautiful day is on tap, before shower & storm chances take over Thursday into Friday.

Posted by Landon Hampton on Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Today – Partly Cloudy – High 85° / Tonight – Isolated Showers Late – Low 65°

First of all, happy Hump Day!

h/t giphy.com

A frontal boundary is stalled well north of the region today. This will allow for high pressure near the Gulf of Mexico to influence the weather today. This should lead to relatively dry conditions, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and a high in the mid 80s. Overall, a very nice day is shaping up!

WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid This Afternoon - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions – Valid This Afternoon – NOAA WPC

A low pressure system will move to the north of the region overnight. Some remnant storms in the Plains may bring a few showers late overnight and into the morning hours on Thursday. However, these shouldn’t be much of a big deal at all. Lows will drop into the mid 60s.

Thursday – AM Showers; Partly Cloudy – High 83° / Thur Night – Scattered Thunderstorms – Low 62°

As stated earlier, a few showers may be possible during the morning hours on Thursday, however we should dry out relatively quickly. Temperatures should rebound into the low to mid  80s once more under partly cloudy skies.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

A few thunderstorms may be possible during the evening and overnight on Thursday night. Conditions should remain unstable during the evening hours. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a “marginal” risk of severe weather. Think of this as a level 1 out of 5.

Severe Weather Outlook - Valid Thursday - NOAA SPC
Severe Weather Outlook – Valid Thursday – NOAA SPC

However, I have my doubts that a severe risk materializes this far south. Moisture convergence along the front becomes a bit weaker overnight, and there is indication of a capping inversion in place during the evening. This may limit the severe threat quite a bit. The image below displays quantified surface convergence. Convergence (lift for storms) is strongest to the west of the region.

NAM Model Forecast Surface Convergence - Valid Thursday PM - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Surface Convergence – Valid Thursday PM – College of DuPage

Friday – Showers Likely – High 70° / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 52°

Remnant showers will continue on Friday morning. The rain should begin to depart the region during the afternoon hours as the front continues to push south. We may even see the sun in the late afternoon and early evening. Highs will be limited to about 70° due to rain and cloudiness.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Conditions should clear out overnight, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 50s.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Also check out Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather Vlogs. Have a great day!