Unsettled Weather to End Week

Today – Mostly sunny skies – High 84° / Tonight – Showers and Storms – Low 61°

Overall, a very nice day is shaping up across south-central Kentucky. Southwest flow in the mid to upper levels will keep things very warm under mostly sunny skies. Expect afternoon highs to reach around 84°. Maybe even break out the sunscreen for afternoon activities! Bottom line: go outside.

Showers and storms will develop to the west of the region during the evening hours. The remnants of these storms will push through along a cold front in the early morning hours overnight. No severe weather is expected at this time, though heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are all possible. Overnight lows will drop to around 61°.

Thursday – AM Showers Possible – High 70° / Thurs Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 54°

Low level flow will become more westerly behind the cold front. The western component of wind should lead to steady temperatures in the low 60s for Thursday. More of a northerly component of wind behind the front may make for a chilly day, however this is not expected. A few lingering showers may be possible as clouds look to stick around.

Clouds should begin to thin out during the evening and overnight. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low around 54°.

Friday – Isolated Storms Possible – High 82° / Fri Night – Storms Likely – Low 68°

A strong storm system will begin to impact the region on Friday. A warm front is expected to lift north of the region during the morning hours. This will place our region in the warm sector, leading to southerly winds and increasing temperatures. Highs will likely top out around 82°.

Conditions will also be fairly humid as dew point temperatures are forecast to be low to mid 60s. Although weak capping is noted on forecast soundings, a few storms may form during the afternoon hours in my opinion. These storms will form in a moderately unstable atmosphere with sufficient shear to become supercells. The only question remains forcing during the afternoon hours to trigger thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do form Friday afternoon, all severe modes will be in play (strong winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes). Again, there remains a big question if forcing will be strong enough for storm initiation.

Later in the evening, the low-level jet will begin to ramp to around 50-60 knots to the west of the region. This should initiate thunderstorms to the west overnight. These storms will likely move in our direction with time as a cluster. Thus, damaging wind, large hail, and heavy rain will be the main threats overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a “slight” risk of severe storms on Friday afternoon and evening. Think of this as a level 2 threat out of 5. An “enhanced” (level 3 out of 5) risk is noted to the west of the region.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Also be sure to find Landon Hampton on Facebook for in-depth and live vlog forecasts. Have a great day!