Sunny Weather Shifts to Storms Later This Week

wxornotBG 4/25/17: Sunny & beautiful today, active pattern returns Thursday through the weekend.o

Posted by Landon Hampton on Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Discussion

The weather pattern across the region is pretty quiet now, but that doesn’t appear to continue for long across the region. We may ultimately see as active a pattern as we saw to end March and begin April, which was craaaaazy.

It may not get that active again, but there is a legitimate possibility. Lets get into this forecast!

First of all, the next couple of days look pretty nice. We will be placed in an amplified area of ridging as it progresses eastward across the region. This is gonna develop in response to a digging trough to our west that looks to bring us our first round of storms over the next week or so.

An annotation of the ridge/trough pattern we are seeing, as depicted by the NAM model. h/t pivotalweather.com

This ridge doesn’t look to warm us up too much today, but I think it gets pretty warm tomorrow. Look for mostly sunny skies today, with highs shooting up into the upper 70s!

I think it gets a bit warmer than the HRRR says, but 70s are the clear picture for temps this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Tomorrow looks pretty similar. There will likely be more cloud cover present across the region, as the aforementioned trough approaches our region, but that will largely be confined to Wednesday night. Look for highs to hit the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.

Now, Thursday is the odd one. Thursday kinda looks weird, as the majority of the sensible weather that we’re gonna experience will likely occur in the morning hours. The cold front associated with the trough and surface low looks to move through during the morning hours on Thursday, bringing a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms to the region.

The 3km NAM model shows a line of early morning showers/storms pushing through the region. The main threat with this will be heavy rain. h/t pivotalweather.com

This maybe able to tap into some of the strong winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and this could cause some damaging winds. This isn’t expected to be a widespread issue, though, as it is occurring during the morning hours with little instability. The SPC has a Marginal Risk (1/5) outlined for some of our region to highlight the risk.

The SPC’s day 3 outlook. Our eastern counties are placed in a slight risk. h/t SPC

Highs on Thursday should be in the mid 60s during the afternoon hours. Be on the lookout for our weekend forecast over the next couple of days, because the weather looks active again.

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly sunny, with highs around 77°F. Overnight, look for partly to mostly clear skies, with lows around 56°F.

Bus stop: ☀️ 53°F
Lunch hour: ☀️ 69°F
School is out: ☀️ 77°F
Evening time: ☀️ 74°F

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies and warm. Look for a breeze to pick up during the afternoon. Highs around 85°F. Overnight, look for increasing clouds, with a shower/thunderstorm chance late. Lows around 61°F.

Bus stop: ☀️ 56°F
Lunch hour: 🌤 74°F
School is out: 🌤 85°F
Evening time: 🌤 80°F

Thursday: Cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms likely early, giving way to partly sunny skies. Highs around 66°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 52°F.

Bus stop: 🌧/⛈ 63°F
Lunch hour: ☁️/🌥 63°F
School is out: ⛅️ 66°F
Evening time: 🌤 60°F

That’s all I’ve got! Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great Tuesday, folks!