The Week in Tropical Weather

I have come to the conclusion that I post way too much about the tropics. The eastern Pacific has been rolling recently, with their first four (soon to be five) storms have formed in a very short amount of time. It is tough to keep up with all of the activity! So, with that in mind, I will be establishing a weekly post about the Tropics. Whether is be the eastern Pacific or the Atlantic or the western Pacific, the Tropics are fairly active around this time of the year. So, without further ado, I give you the first installment of: The Week in Tropical Weather.

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I am no expert in tropical meteorology, I wouldn’t even call myself an amateur. Tropical Meteorology is a much different animal than mid-latitude meteorology, and as such, it is difficult for me to apply my knowledge of mid-latitude meteorology to tropical meteorology.

However, I can tell you a few things about this past week. One, the Tropical Atlantic has been very, very quiet. Nothing has really happened in the Atlantic since the beginning of the season in June.

I don’t think the Atlantic is looking to heat up very much over the next few days, as the National Hurricane Center isn’t forecasting any development over the next five days.

However, the eastern Pacific is a completely different story. The eastern Pacific has been popping out storms like there is no tomorrow. There have been 5 consecutive storms that took the same general path across the eastern Pacific. Additionally, these five have all formed since July 1st. That is a very, very active pattern, and it is amazing to see that 3 of the 5 became hurricanes, and the fifth is on the path to becoming one.

There have been five named storms in 18 days, and they are likely to see a sixth soon, as the NHC has a 50% chance of another system developing within the next five days.

Some specifics from the past week include Hurricane Darby and Tropical Storm Estelle. Hurricane Darby was, at one point, really awesome. She got up to Category 3 strength over the weekend, and was a beautiful system overall.

Hurricane Darby looks close to being major (100-knots)
Annular / detached from ITCZ … building swell for Hawaii pic.twitter.com/FYUwxeMkWI

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 16, 2016

Now, she is a mere ghost of her former self. She has reached cooler waters, and is beginning to die out.

Now, Tropical Storm Estelle is a bit of a different story. While it is still a tropical storm, the NHC is forecasting it to become a hurricane soon.

It isn’t the most organized system, but it will likely become more organized as it traverses over the higher sea surface temperatures.