Thursday Afternoon Weather Update

***Update 3:15pm*** The slight risk has been lifted for the Bowling Green area.

The SPC has expanded the slight risk northward to include all of Bowling Green for the approaching storms this afternoon. These storms could be severe with a risk of lightning, hail, and potential isolated tornadoes. Several parameters are in place for severe storms and I encourage you to stay weather aware today.

There is ample moisture in place with a southwesterly wind flow and dew points stretching into the upper 60s (possibly making it to the 70s in some areas). This is giving the air that lovely humid feeling today. The frontal boundary, as well as upper-level divergence and positive vorticity advection from the upper-level trough will provide enough lift for these storms. Mixed-layer CAPE values are currently hovering around 1000 j/kg and could rise by this afternoon which will also add to the instability.

 An area of higher wind shear will be moving into the area later this afternoon (approximately 30+ kts); however helicity values will be on the lower end. Isolated tornadoes are not out of the question but it is looking like we have more potential for straight-line winds, heavy rain, and lightning.

These storms look like they will be arriving in the next few hours, as they are already moving through western Kentucky. Stay safe and continue to follow @WxOrNotBG for more updates!