Severe Weather Update

***Severe Weather Update***

Current thinking is still on track with the earlier forecast post. Extreme instability values are expected to develop or developing during the next few hours. The lack of clouds and precipitation are the main factor for the instability building across the region.

Currently, we have a line of strong to severe storms stretched from eastern Illinois and into central Indiana. This line will continue to move south along the periphery of an upper level ridge. This will likely impact much of central Kentucky around 2 to 5 PM this evening. The main hazard with this line will be destructive wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued within the next couple of hours for issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our entire coverage area (Warren, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Allen County), along with an additional large chunk of Kentucky, until 7pm tonight.

Additional thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours, forming ahead of the main line of storms. Confidence in this scenario remains relatively low, however any isolated thunderstorms will be capable of destructive wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Moderate Risk across the region.

A third round of strong storms will be possible late tonight. This may be the most potent line of thunderstorms through the day. The low-level jet will ramp up during the evening and overnight hours. This belt of strong wind will drive the storms forward and it won’t take much for the storm to tap into these winds and mix them down to the surface.

Flash flooding is also a big threat for today. As the National Weather Service in Louisville, KY just stated, it doesn’t matter where you are in Kentucky, the ground is saturated. Rainfall rates in the most intense storms could be around 2-3″ per hour. Rainfall will likely last for several hours after the last line has moved through the region. It is not out of the question that some places pick up in excess of 3″ of rain today. Widespread rainfall totals won’t be like that, but the possibility is there. Remember to turn around, don’t drown when you come upon flooded roadways.

Bottom line: several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today. Be weather aware anytime after noon today in the event that cells form ahead of the multiple lines of thunderstorms. Destructive winds and flash flooding are the main threats will all storms today, with a secondary threat of large hail and isolated tornadoes.

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