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Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today 7/13 – Scattered Severe Storms Likely; Hot – High 93° / Tonight – Severe Storms Likely – Low 75°
According to a morning analysis across the midwest, a very warm, and moist environment is in place across Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and places further north. This means that the atmosphere is very unstable, and will continue to destabilize due to the lack of clouds and precipitation this morning.
An ongoing MCS (thunderstorm complex) is occurring over the state of Wisconsin. This may turn a bit to the south and impact us in some form or fashion later today. And now, to a tough forecast.
This is how I see the day unfolding: some additional thunderstorms may form across our area this afternoon. This is a bit of a stretch in all honesty, however the cap will essentially be eroded this afternoon and thunderstorms will try to form. Thunderstorms will only need a forcing mechanism in order to become established. If this does occur, forecast soundings and hodographs indicate intense isolated supercells will be the storm mode, with damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible. Confidence in this actually occurring is low, but I felt the risk needed to be mentioned.
After these cells move through a given area, an additional line of strong to severe storms may form to the north and move through the region. These storms will contain very heavy rain, damaging wind, isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Confidence in this round of thunderstorms appears medium because the current trajectory of those storms may take them just to the east of Bowling Green. These storms would likely take place between 4 and 7 PM.
A third round of severe weather, as well as potentially the most potent, will form this evening to the north of the region. This will move south during the evening and into the nighttime hours. This line of storms will contain heavy rain, destructive wind gusts, as well as a chance for an isolated tornado. This line of storms will likely be capable of wind gusts well in excess of 70 mph. These storms would likely take place between 10 PM and 6 AM. There is much variability among the models as to the speed of this line.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed Bowling Green in a “Moderate” risk of severe weather. The moderate risk is in place due to the concern with widespread damaging wind potential.
Tuesday 7/14 – Isolated Strong to Severe Storms; Hot – High 94° / Tue Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 75°
The warm, moist air mass will still be in place across the region on Tuesday. High temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s will combine to make it feel more like ~105° across the region. This means the atmosphere will remain very unstable throughout the day on Tuesday.
Thunderstorms may form on Tuesday afternoon. These storms may quickly become severe with a threat of damaging wind, isolated large hail, as well as an isolated tornado possible. The Storm Prediction Center has included south-central Kentucky in a “slight” risk of severe weather for Tuesday.
Thunderstorm activity should move to the south and east of the region through the afternoon and evening. This should leave us with partly cloudy skies overnight, with a low around 75°.
Wednesday 7/15 – Partly Cloudy – High 88° / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 72°
The surface boundary and quasi-cold front will move to the south of the region on Wednesday. This will place us in a northerly flow at the surface, as well as aloft. This will allow for temperatures to “cool” down a bit into the upper 80s across the region. No disturbances are expected to move through the region, thus partly cloudy skies are expected.
Partly cloudy skies will continue overnight with a low around 72°.
That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to check the blog frequently for updates. You should also follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest south central Kentucky weather information.