@wxornotBG Facebook
@wxornotBG Twitter
@wxornotBG Instagram
*Areal Flood Watch for all of south central Kentucky from 6pm Tuesday – 12pm Wednesday*
An Areal Flood Watch is issued for flooding that develops gradually, usually from prolonged and persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. This results in a gradual ponding or buildup of water in low-lying, flood prone areas, as well as small creeks and streams.
*Winter Storm Watch for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren County from 6am Wednesday through 12pm Thursday*
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this watch to be issued is confidence in significant snow/ice accumulations of 4+”.
This Afternoon – Mostly Sunny – High 44˚ / Tonight – Iso’d showers – Low 34˚
Conditions will remain calm this afternoon and evening, with northerly winds holding temp values to the low 40s. As we get into tonight, surface flow will turn southerly, which will begin to advect warm, moist air into the region.
The result will be isolated rain showers moving over south central Kentucky late tonight. The HRRR simulated radar model below, valid for 1am, paints very light, hit & miss showers tracking in from the southwest:
Tue 3/3 – Scat’d Showers – High 64˚ / Tue Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 39˚
*Areal Flood Watch for all of south central Kentucky from 6pm Tuesday – 12pm Wednesday*
We’ll be firmly placed in the warm sector of this weather system on Tuesday. This will cause southerly flow to really amp up, increasing moisture parameters and temperature values throughout our atmosphere.
A cold front approaching from our northwest will serve as a forcing mechanism, coinciding with the ample moisture in place to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across south central Kentucky by Tuesday evening.
The following 4km NAM simulated radar model loops every 3 hours from 9pm Tuesday night through 9am Wednesday. This is when the heaviest rain should fall:
The rain will be heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with total amounts ranging between 1-3″. This could very well lead to flooding problems across the area. If water rises over roadways, do not attempt to cross them.
Wait for it…
Don’t be that guy.
This will only be the start of what will be a wild weather roller coaster ride through Thursday…
Wed 3/4 – Rain/Sleet/Snow Likely – High 41˚↓ / Wed Night – Snow Likely – Low 17˚
*Winter Storm Watch for Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren County from 6am Wednesday through 12pm Thursday*
Wednesday is currently the main focus of this forecast, with a very tricky, difficult setup in place. A sharp cold front will plow southeast across the viewing area during the early morning hours of our Hump Day, causing temperatures to tank as the day progresses.
This front is expected to stall out to our southeast, keeping plenty of moisture in range to allow a transition from all rain to sleet & snow over the area. The GFS has this changeover occurring by 12pm Wednesday:
One big question is when exactly this transition will occur. At this point in time, I think we’ll see a changeover to frozen precipitation between mid morning and mid afternoon. We’ll have to monitor the incoming data very closely to nail down a more specific time frame. Whenever this hits, travel conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly.
We’ll eventually see a transition to all snow sometime Wednesday afternoon/evening, lasting until midday Thursday. This will likely lead to even more travel issues across the area, as temperatures continue to tumble.
There are still MANY questions regarding how this event will unfold. This will greatly depend on how quickly our temperatures drop below freezing on Wednesday, and how long the moisture is able to stick around.
As it stands, this could turn out to be another significant winter weather event. I do not feel comfortable mentioning any totals with high confidence, however, it’s important to know that the potential is there for 4-8+” of accumulation. I wish I were kidding, believe me…
*Collective Reaction*
One thing we’ll be watching closely is the amount of freezing rain and/or sleet we receive, which could greatly cut into total accumulation amounts. Ice does not accumulate as quickly as snow.
Regardless, this system is expected to bring travel woes to the region, along with flooding and other concerns. As we always say, please be prepared for all of these threats before this system starts to impact the area.
Snow showers should finally come to an end by midday Thursday, with gradual clearing expected to follow. Highs located in the mid 20s on Thursday will plummet to near 0˚ by early Friday morning, meaning any snow/sleet that falls won’t be going anywhere.
That will wrap up the afternoon blog update. As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx for the latest real-time weather information. Have a great night, and stay safe!