Snow Chances Linger

Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:


Tonight – Scat’d Rain & Snow Showers – Low 20˚

It’s been a beautiful day complete with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 50s.  I hope you took time to enjoy it, because that’s all about to change…

via boingboing.net
via boingboing.net

…for the worse.

Cloud cover has started to take over the region, as a potent cold front closes in from the northwest.  Temperatures are going to take a plunge once this boundary passes.  The temp model below, valid for 4:45pm, helps illustrate what’s on the way:

Screen Shot 2015-02-04 at 4.41.49 PM
Temperature Model Valid 4:45pm This Afternoon – SimuAWIPS

As the front works southeast across the area, it’ll bring scattered rain and snow showers along and behind it.  Any activity should quickly transition to scattered, light snow, given the tumbling temp values.

The HRRR model below loops every hour from 9pm – 3am tonight.  It has been consistent with the idea of light snow falling across south central Kentucky:

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 9pm - 3am Tonight - WeatherBELL Analytics
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 9pm – 3am Tonight – WeatherBELL Analytics

With that being said, a few of the other models are not fancying our chances for the “white gold” as much…

After analyzing the latest guidance and comparing it with real-time observations and data, I see no reason to really alter the forecast.  Accumulations won’t be much, if anything.  A dusting – 1″ still seems reasonable to me.

We shouldn’t focus on potential snow amounts, but rather the potential for travel issues.  Temperatures are going to flat out TANK

via gifsoup.com
via gifsoup.com

…tonight, bottoming out around 20˚.  This will definitely allow whatever falls to stick.  Slick spots will be inevitable.  Please use caution if traveling late tonight into Thursday morning.

Skies will clear out as we progress throughout our Thursday, however, conditions will be MUCH colder.  Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 30˚, so don’t be deceived by the rays of sunshine.  Much of the same is expected on Friday, as temps claw their way back into the mid 40s.

That’s all for the afternoon update.  As always, we’ll be wired up with frequent updates throughout this “event” on twitter, so be sure to connect with us there for any changes that may take place:

@WxOrNotBG

@WarrenCountyWx

Everyone have a safe night.  Thanks for reading!