Rain and Snow on the Way

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today – Partly Sunny – High 38º / Tonight – Mostly Clear – Low 24º

6am 30º – 9am 32º – 12pm 36º – 3pm 38º – 6pm 33º

Most folks will walk out the door to overcast skies this morning, but no worries, the clouds are expected to thin out during the late morning/early afternoon hours, making way for rays of sun to filter in!

Embrace the sunshine, because it will still be cold. Light northerly winds will help hold afternoon highs to the upper 30s. The NAM model below displays cloud cover at 6am.

Saturday – Clouds Increasing – High 44º / Sat Night – Rain/Snow – Low 35º

Saturday will nearly be the opposite of today. Sunny skies early on in the day will be overtaken by clouds as the afternoon arrives. This is all ahead of an approaching system that will be moving into the region Saturday night. This system will likely bring a mix of rain and snow to the area during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning.

Did I just say snow?  Here!?!  There likely won’t be any accumulation from the initial wave of precipitation that takes place Saturday night – Sunday morning, as temperatures will warm too rapidly for snow by the time the heaviest precipitation arrives during the day Sunday.

Sunday – Rain/Snow – High 42º / Sun Night – Mix/Snow – Low 30º

By Sunday evening, things get interesting. The GFS handled the last northeast snowstorm rather well, we can take a look at what the early runs of the model are pointing toward. The 00z run of the GFS has trended further north, keeping mostly rain in our area with a few backside snow showers early Monday morning.

However, we must note that not only has the GFS model struggled with the track of the low pressure, but several other models have continually shifted the low pressure track over the past several days. Once this storm (currently moving onto the west coast) moves on land, we’ll be better able to sample the data. Therefore, the models will have better data to work with and provide more accurate guidance.

Forecasting snowfall amounts this early in the game would be nothing more than a shot in the dark. But two likely scenarios could play out.

Scenario 1:  Climate history tells us Bowling Green is too far south for a good storm, and 90 % of the time we are. South central Kentucky is not situated in a favorable spot for usual low pressure tracks during the winter. Therefore, the likely scenario is that Bowling Green sees mainly rain with some light, backside snow showers.

Scenario 2: The low pressure track remains across southern Tennessee or the upper Mississippi Valley, allowing more cold air to work into the region (but also less moisture available). This scenario would allow for several inches of snow to fall along and south of the parkways near Bowling Green. **But keep in mind, this scenario is far less likely to play out.

We will keep you up to date with the latest evolving trends with this upcoming storm. As always, be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and@WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!