The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center still has a 60 – 65% chance of an El Nino occurring during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. Here is the model spread:
Here is an image of the sea surface height anomalies. Higher than normal sea surface indicates warmer ocean waters.
In case you are wandering what the difference is between a La Nina and an El Nino: A La Nina is the cooling of the ocean waters off the west coast of South America, whereas an El Nino is the warming of the ocean waters of the west coast of South America.
How does the El Nino impact our winters? Typically an El Nino will give Kentucky dryer than average conditions with equal chances of seeing above or below average temperatures. With this El Nino looking to be weak to moderate at best, it will have less of an influence on our winter.