Wednesday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Scattered Showers & Storms – High 78 / Tonight – Isolated Showers – Low 62

4pm 78 {} 7pm 72 {} 10pm 68 {} 1am 64

Upper low mentioned in this morning’s forecast will continue to keep scattered showers and a few isolated storms in the forecast for south central Kentucky through this evening.  Overnight, we should see any lingering precip diminish, as forcing weakens across the region.  Keep up with the wet stuff with the radar below:

 

Thu – Partly Sunny, Scat’d Storms – High 82 / Thu Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 60

7am 65 {} 10am 74 {} 1pm 78 {} 4pm 82

Southwest flow will keep an environment conducive for isolated/scattered convective development around for another day. I do believe we will see more sunshine tomorrow, as the cloud deck should break up to an extent tonight. Severe weather is not expected, however, a few cells could become strong, producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and small hail.

Our atmosphere will remain moist and unstable, with peak heating during the afternoon supplementing the best opportunity at seeing measurable rainfall. Outside of that, we’ll keep it partly sunny and tolerable.

Fri – Partly Sunny, Iso’d Storms – High 85 / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 67

7am 63 {} 10am 77 {} 1pm 82 {} 4pm 85

Another day of partly sunny skies and isolated storms, as an upper disturbance remains lodged in southwesterly flow aloft in the atmosphere, which will continue to churn a damp airmass over us here in south central Kentucky.

A strong surface low looks to wrap up over the Midwest on Saturday, sending an occluded front across our proximity. This feature is still expected to send precipitation chances on the increase Saturday afternoon – Sunday morning, with the exact timing of the passing of the front still leaving questions regarding the magnitude of this setup. If the front passes during afternoon/evening on Saturday, we could be looking at the potential for a few severe thunderstorms.

Other models, however, are suggesting that this boundary will pass on Sunday morning, which would cancel out any sufficient instability, giving us more of an all rain event. I’ll continue to monitor the latest data, and inform you of the timing as needed. The GFS thickness model below is valid for 7am Sunday morning. As you can see, this data set paints sufficient moisture advancing east into our proximity around this time:

 

That will be all for now, friends.  I’ll be back bright and early tomorrow morning with fresh analysis of our weather conditions.  Until that time comes, enjoy what’s left of your Hump Day, and stay dry.  Thanks for reading!