Gloomy Sunday in Store; Still Watching Christmas

Cold Rain Sunday

Yep, that is rainfall you hear outside your window or see falling. What? You don’t remember what rain is like? Oh, neither do I! The last time it rained was 12 days ago, and the last time we saw 1″ of rain in one day was back on November 6th.

And to top it off? It is cold outside. Cold rain is maybe the worst kind of weather.

The models look to push precipitation out between 1 and 3 this afternoon, but that doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. Clouds look to remain thick behind the precip as it moves to our northeast, only allowing temps to rise into the mid 40s.

You’re exactly right, El. It is bad. h/t giphy.com

Yeah, yeah. Its not cool. But it is nice weather to enjoy a Sunday afternoon by the fire and read a book or learn things you couldn’t learn during the semester (that is what I will be doing).

Early Week Warm up

A cold front will be slowly sagging southward from Canada, and will interact with a developing low pressure system to our south on Tuesday and into Wednesday.

The low pressure system will move to our south, bringing clouds and rainfall. This is the NAM model’s solution. h/t COD Weather

Ahead of this system, we’ll see some nice southwesterly flow. Despite cloud cover and isolated showers Tuesday afternoon, temperatures should get into the low-mid 50s tomorrow, and mid-upper 50s on Tuesday.

The cold front and low it is interacting with will approach on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models were not overly ambitious on our rainfall; however, they have been trending towards a rain solution.

The best weather model (the European model) has had rainfall on Tuesday/Wednesday for several days now. h/t wx.graphics

Expect rain for your commute on Wednesday morning, and temps cooling off into the 40s that afternoon.

What is Going on With Christmas?

Great question. That is very, very complicated at this point. The forecast for this Christmas weekend looks like it may be one of the more complicated forecasts that we have had here in a long time.

What we do know:

There is likely to be an influx of anomalously cold air into the lower 48 during the Christmas weekend time frame
The pattern will be active ahead of this
The models aren’t going to handle this well

The models have been quite inconsistent over the past few days in regards to this time frame, flopping back and forth between different solutions. Some models are even in left field with their solution.

Don’t get hung up on the forecast in this range. With a pattern this complicated, they’re going to change quite a bit. Know there is potential, but at this time it doesn’t look as great as it once did. We’ll keep working on the forecast to make it as good as possible!

Well, that’s it for me folks! Have a good one. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG on Twitter for the latest!