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Today: Foggy AM to partly cloudy skies – High: 73° / Tonight: Isolated Showers – Low: 60°
Some patchy fog may be possible this morning. However, it is beginning to look like this will be the best weather day in the forecast period. Fog this morning should depart to partly cloudy skies across the region. The nice weather in store for the region is due to high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. You can also see the next disturbance on the map below, where an upper level low is denoted. Highs today will be around 73°.
Isolated showers may begin to develop tonight as the upper level low begins to move in our direction. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies can be expected with a low around 60°.
Thursday: Showers and Storms (Severe Possible) – High: 75° / Thur Night: Showers and storms – Low: 54°
A bit more of a concerning day is in store on Thursday. That upper level low will move to southern portions of Missouri. This will lead to divergence aloft across the region.
A surface low will develop and move into east central Missouri, with a trailing cold front stretching along the Mississippi River by early afternoon. This will place us in the warm sector of the low pressure system.
If morning showers can quickly move to the east, or dissipate, then some partly cloudy skies can be expected in the late morning and early afternoon. This would lead to increased surface temperatures, leading to more instability. If enough instability can be achieved, I believe we’ll have adequate shear for severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening. The Hi-Res NAM develops storms to the west of the region by noon and moves them into south-central Kentucky by 10 PM to Midnight. The latest trend has been to shift east, so timing may be a little off on storm arrival.
The Storm Prediction Center has been monitoring this severe weather potential and has outlined our region in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather. Think of Enhanced as level 3 out of 5. A moderate risk has been outlined to the south and west of the region. Think of this as a level 4 out of 5. Thus, severe weather in these areas is looking likely. Damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.
Showers should continue overnight, however no severe weather is expected after the initial line of storms moves through. Lows will drop back into the low to mid 50s.
Friday: Showers possible – High: 62° / Fri Night: Mostly cloudy – Low: 45°
Remnant showers may be possible throughout the day Friday as the upper level low meanders north of the region. Fortunately no severe weather is expected in our region. With weak southerly surface flow during the afternoon, expect high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 60s across south-central Kentucky. Overall, it’s looking like a “meh” day.
Showers should dissipate overnight leaving us with mostly cloudy skies and a low in the mid 40s.
That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Also be sure to check out Landon Hampton on Facebook. I’m currently thinking about watching the storms in west Tennessee tomorrow and track them into our region. You can follow along on Twitter @jacobwilkinswx. Be safe tomorrow and have a great day!
Regional Radar: