Warm and Active Pattern Upcoming

Real-time Radar:

Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday was just really, really cold. And also: my forecast for yesterday was potentially my worst one for WxOrNotBG since I have been here, and I apologize for that. I didn’t anticipate temps to fall into the low teens by any stretch yesterday morning, and I anticipated a cloudier forecast for yesterday afternoon. The disturbance that I expected to force those clouds weakened significantly in a very dry atmosphere, and thus, we ended up with mostly sunny skies.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville — Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Partly sunny to mostly sunny, and a bit breezy. Highs around 62°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 41°F

Wake up: 🌥 44°F
Lunch hour: 🌤 57°F
Evening time: 🌤 58°F

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny early, with clouds increasing, as well as storm chances, by the evening time. Highs around 63°F. Overnight, look for shower/storm chances to remain, with lows around 58°F.

Bus stop: 🌤 42°F
Lunch hour: 🌤/🌥 56°F
School is out: 🌥/☁️ 58°F
Evening time: ☁️/🌧/⛈ 61°F

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy, with showers and storms possible. Highs around 70°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with lows around 46°F.

Bus stop: 🌧/⛈ 60°F
Lunch hour: 🌧/⛈ 65°F
School is out: 🌧/⛈ 70°F
Evening time: 🌥/☁️ 65°F

Discussion

This forecast period is as weird as the last one I had. I had a difficult time forecasting for lows last time, so hopefully I can nail it down this time!

Today will be a fairly nice start to the forecast period. While we are waking up with cloud cover, observations so our west indicate some clearing skies are heading out way. Additionally, with an atmospheric disturbance propagating quickly eastward, this will remove the main forcing.

While this occurs, a weak low pressure system will be propagating northeastward through southern Canada, with its cold front dragging through our region. This will allow for winds to flow from the southwest, and get relatively strong today. Thus, I am anticipating highs reaching the 60s today!

Tomorrow and Tuesday are when things get a bit interesting. A large scale storm system will begin to move our way during the day on Monday, with one primary disturbance ejecting into the central Plains and moving northeastward by Monday night.

The disturbance will fire off some showers and storms! h/t pivotalweather.com

This will begin to initiate a surface low across central Kansas. Ahead of this, a warm front will have already developed across the region, pushing northward by Monday evening. This will usher in southwesterly flow, and a much warmer atmosphere for Monday night going into Tuesday.

The placement of the low pressure allows for the warm front to nudge to our north on Monday night. Created using IDV

The showers and storms should form along that warm front and its forcing, and should move northward by the overnight hours. Still, the threat for storms will last as that initial disturbance moves eastward. As winds in the atmosphere increase in the overnight hours, there is a good shot that we see an isolated storm storm or two. Don’t expect anything too widespread, though.

Tuesday is weird. There was a legitimate severe weather threat just a day or two ago, as the large scale system looked much more impressive. However, that has sort of died down, at least in this forecaster’s eyes.

The low pressure system is going to be pretty strong, but will move northward quickly during the day, following the best forcing into southern Canada. This will leave us with relatively weak forcing throughout the day on Tuesday, yielding weak showers and storms. Additionally, with little to no instability, I just don’t see severe weather. The SPC has us in a Slight Risk, even though the risk isn’t too high.

The SPC's outlook includes all of our region. h/t SPC — The SPC’s outlook includes all of our region. h/t SPC

The bets chance of severe weather is associate with a chance for a line of storms to form along the cold front as it moves through on Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be whipping from the southwest during the day, warming us up into the upper 60s and lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

It is looking warm on Tuesday! h/t pivotalweather.com

Today’s Key Points

Nice today; enjoy it
Showers/storms are likely tomorrow afternoon
Tuesday looks breezy and warm
Severe weather doesn’t look likely at this time on Tuesday

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!