Damp & Dreary Start To 2017

TODAY: Cloudy, Scattered Showers. AM Low 43 / PM High 52

Another gloomy, damp day is slated across south central Kentucky as we kick off 2017.  A weak disturbance that passed through yesterday has stalled out to our south, and will lift north as we progress throughout this Sunday. This will keep thick cloud cover in place, along with scattered, light rain showers. All of this follows patchy, dense fog this morning. Not ideal, but hey, it looks as though we’ll just have to deal with it…

Temperature wise, it won’t be quite as cold as yesterday, however, it’ll feel cooler than actual readings, thanks to clouds, rain and east winds of 5-15 MPH. We’re in the low to mid 40s across the region this morning, with values only expected to reach the low 50s later this afternoon.

MONDAY: Scattered showers/storms, becoming widespread. AM Low 50 / PM High 68

An area of low pressure will develop well to our southwest, then cut a path through central Kentucky as we get into the overnight. Ahead of this weather maker, southerly winds will usher in a very warm, moist air mass.

This will result in well above average temperatures, which are expected to hit the mid/upper 60s by mid afternoon. The GFS model below shows the low pressure working over area. The loop is valid from 3pm Monday – 6am Tuesday:

This will be followed by increasing rain and storm coverage Monday evening into early Tuesday, which could produce some stout thunder boomers in the process. Here’s a look at the latest 4km NAM from 3pm Monday thru 6am Tuesday, which signals scattered activity during the afternoon, followed by widespread storms overnight:

With southerly flow not only increasing moisture, but instability as well, a few storms could become strong/severe. The latest SPC severe weather outlook includes the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather:

This means widespread severe weather is NOT anticipated, however, a few isolated instances of severe wind (>58mph) can’t be ruled out. We’ve been given a 5% probability of a severe event occurring within 25 miles of any location in our area.

Tuesday: Scattered showers early, then partly cloudy. AM Low 58 / PM High 61

The passing of the low pressure system to our east will turn winds out of the west. This will result in temps not moving too much early, before plummeting during the late afternoon and evening hours. Scattered showers through the early part of the day will be followed by cloudy skies. With any luck, perhaps a few rays of sun just before sunset.

Winter Storm Potential

On Wednesday, we’ll see sunshine return, however, it’ll be MUCH colder. This will set the stage for what could be our first true accumulating snow of the season sometime between Thursday & Saturday. Wednesday morning readings in the low 30s will be held to the mid/upper 30s during the afternoon, before tumbling to the upper teens/low 20s by early Thursday.

The latest guidance continues to flip-flop on our snow potential, so NOTHING is set in stone at this point in time. It’s not too impressive, to be honest. With that being said, a few of the models are favoring the idea of a little snow. The experimental winter weather tool shows a 10% chance of seeing some white stuff on the ground by early Saturday morning:

That’ll wrap up this morning’s forecast post. Remember to stay connected to @wxornotBG for the latest info. Have a great start to 2017, folks!