Bowling Green Weather is Getting Stormy

Real-time Bowling Green Weather Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather remained fairly amazing. Dewpoints were fairly low across the region, and this kept us mostly sunny and dry. While we ended up in the mid 80s, it still felt great outside.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Showers and storms in the morning, with skies becoming partly cloudy. Highs around 85°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies to remain, with lows around 65°F.

  • Wake up: ⛈🌩  67°F
  • Lunch hour: ⛅️  77°F
  • Evening time: 🌤  76°F

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and storms possible in the afternoon. Highs around 82°F. Overnight, look for rain to exit, with partly cloudy skies remaining. Lows around 66°F.

  • Wake up: 🌤 ⛅️  66°F
  • Lunch hour: ⛅️⛈  84°F
  • Evening time: 🌧  76°F

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies, with scattered storms in the afternoon. Some storms could be severe. Highs around 92°F. Overnight, scattered storms early, with skies becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 70°F.

  • Wake up: 🌤  68°F
  • Lunch hour: ⛅️🌩  89°F
  • Evening time: ⛈🌩  85°F

🇺🇸 Fourth of July Early Forecast🇺🇸 : Mostly cloudy, with scattered shower and storm chances by the evening. Highs in the low to mid 80s.

  • Wake up: 🇺🇸⛅️ 71°F
  • Potluck time: 🇺🇸🍔🌭 🌧 80°F
  • Fireworks: 🇺🇸💥🌧  74°F

Discussion

This is a very, very interesting forecast.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

I am excited because it is challenging, and I am sort of taking a risk on Sunday in this forecast. However, you gotta do it sometimes! Lets dive on in, folks.

First of all, there is a complex of showers/thundershowers moving across the region this morning. Associated with this will be brief heavier rainfall, as higher moisture content is beginning to nose back into the region from the west.

As you can see, the rainfall is on the nose of a higher pool of precipitable water values. h/t SPC
As you can see, the rainfall is on the nose of a higher pool of precipitable water values. h/t SPC

This should be a quick hit, and should be out of here no later than 10. Behind the storms, there doesn’t appear to be a significant amount of cloud cover, so we should end up seeing partly cloudy skies as we head into the afternoon. Highs look to be in the mid 80s, and I can’t rule out an isolated storm this evening, but it isn’t too likely.

The hi res NAM's model forecast for temps this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi res NAM’s model forecast for temps this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight tonight, look for partly cloudy skies to remain, with lows falling into the mid 60s. Tomorrow looks to be kinda…not great.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

A speed max within the 500 mb flow will be moving eastward through the region, and will likely force cloud cover and rainfall across much of the state. I think that we’ll be on the southern fringe, but I still think that many of us see rainfall at some point.

The NAM showing the possibility of rainfall tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM showing the possibility of rainfall tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

I think we start the day off fairly nice, and then work our way towards the nasty weather that we likely will see in the afternoon and evening. I think that this will hold temps down, though. Look for highs in the lower 80s for your day tomorrow.

The NAM's model forecast for temps tomorrow afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM’s model forecast for temps tomorrow afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

Overnight, look for rain to exit from the region, giving way to partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 60s.

Sunday is the real interesting day for our region.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

First of all, my thoughts on Sunday have changed fairly quickly over the past couple days. I wasn’t too impressed with a severe weather threat on Sunday until I looked through the guidance this morning, and Sunday does look more impressive than I gave it credit for.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

A fairly well defined shortwave looks to force a closed surface low to our northwest during the day on Sunday, and will move a warm front to our north, advecting a very warm and moist atmosphere within a southwesterly flow regime.

The NAM's model forecast for temps Sunday afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM’s model forecast for temps Sunday afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM's model forecast for dewpoints Sunday afternoon. The purple indicates 70 degree dewpoints, which are high. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM’s model forecast for dewpoints Sunday afternoon. The purple indicates 70 degree dewpoints, which are high. h/t pivotalweather.com

Additionally, lows at 700 and 850 mb possibly look to be well defined, if not completely closed off. This could enhance atmospheric low level flow and increase wind shear across the region. This is a tough forecast, as there is still a bit of model inconsistency, but I do think that there is likely to be a severe thunderstorm threat Sunday evening, with the main threats being damaging winds, lightning and flash flooding.

The SPC has outlined an area just to our west in a slight risk, but I expect that to expand eastward. h/t SPC
The SPC has outlined an area just to our west in a slight risk, but I expect that to expand eastward. h/t SPC

Highs on Sunday look to be in the lower 90s as southwesterly flow tends to warm us up fairly quickly. Overnight, look for storms to remain early, and then exit with lows in the lower 70s.


Extended Outlook

The Fourth of July looks rainy at this point. I have to admit, I am fairly bummed about it. I would love to have a Fourth of July forecast that doesn’t include some chance of rain, but at this point, that doesn’t seem likely.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Nevertheless, a ridge looks to build in after the Fourth of July system moves through, so that should bring with it nicer weather.


Well, that is all I have for ya! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest on Bowling Green Weather! Have a good one folks!