@wxornotBG Facebook
@wxornotBG Twitter
@wxornotBG Instagram
Real time Bowling Green Weather Radar
Yesterday’s Weather
Yesterday’s weather can be defined by saying it was a lot like the mean weather conditions lately: quiet, sunny and hot. It was fairly warm outside, as sunny skies dominated the atmosphere.
Highs in Bowling Green reached 90°F at the airport, and 88°F at the mesonet station. Either way, my fellow forecaster, Jacob Wilkins, had a great forecast for the day.
Forecast summary
Today: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms. Some storms could be severe. Highs around 86°F. Overnight, skies will remain partly cloudy, with lows falling to around 72°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 71°F
- Lunch hour: ⛅️ ⛈ 85°F
- Evening time: 🌤 🌩 80°F
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, with partly cloudy skies and isolated severe storms by evening. Highs around 92°F. Overnight, look for isolated to scattered storms. Lows around 76°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 73°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 89°F
- Evening time: 🌤 ⛈ 84°F
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms in the afternoon. Some storms could be strong/severe. Highs around 90°F. Overnight, skies clearing, with lows falling to around 69°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 76°F
- Lunch hour: ⛅️ ⛈ 89°F
- Evening time: 🌤 🌩 86°F
Discussion
The weather over the next few days will likely be much more interesting that the previous few days. That had me excited to write this forecast!
Lets jump right into it. Today, the ingredients are definitely there for strong/severe thunderstorms to fire up and move through this afternoon. The front is a ways to our north this morning, but it should be in relative proximity to out region by this afternoon.
By about the noon hour, the front will be moving much closer to the region. This will be in conjunction with a pool of higher instability across the region, and should yield a favorable environment for some strong storms.
I am expecting storms to fire up between 12 pm and 3 pm this afternoon, and move through the region. I don’t think everyone will see severe weather, as wind shear in the atmosphere isn’t too high, which will help a little. However, I think it is a threat with any storm that pops up.
The main threats for today will be heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail reports. Look for highs to hit the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight, skies should remain partly cloudy, with lows falling into the lower 70s.
Wednesday looks really interesting, especially to our north. The ingredients for a significant severe weather event somewhere across the Ohio Valley, and it is looking increasingly likely that the region effected will be to our north.
The model guidance is forecasting a sharp 500 mb shortwave and associated jet max propagating quickly across the north central Plains, and into the northern Ohio Valley. This looks to force a relatively strong and established surface low across the same region, and in an extremely unstable environment across a large portion of the Ohio Valley, severe thunderstorms should initiate in associated with these features.
Additionally, strong 700 mb and 850 mb flow will expand and strengthen across a very large region of the northern Ohio Valley. This will create a very well sheared environment that will be placed over an unstable environment across the northern Ohio Valley. Thus, the SPC has placed that region in a Moderate risk, leaving us in a Marginal Risk for severe storms.
There is still some uncertainty. The likely storm mode will initially be supercells, with large hail and tornadoes. However, as time progresses (this could be a fairly quick process), the individual storms will likely congeal into a line, and accelerate southeastward. This is the difficult part of the forecast, as MCS’ can take on a life of their own, and follow weak or strong boundaries. The most established boundary tomorrow evening will be an instability and moisture gradient boundary, which has been consistently painted across the northern and into eastern KY region. I am not saying that track is the one it will take, but it is more than a possibility, and is something to watch for tomorrow.
How that effects our region? We will have to see. Highs will reach the lower 90s with a southwesterly flow regime, and overnight conditions will see isolated storms, and mid 70s for lows.
Phew, this is a long forecast! It looks to remain a long forecast going into Thursday. I actually think that Thursday has the best chance of any of the three days.
I’ll detail this more in tomorrow’s forecast as well, but as a brief look into it, atmospheric flow across the region is forecast to increase across the region throughout the day Thursday. This is in conjunction with a southward advancing cold front, and a very warm and moist atmosphere, yielding a very unstable atmosphere.
This should give us some severe weather during the afternoon and evening hours, but it isn’t set in stone yet.
Highs should reach the lower 90s, and skies will clear overnight, with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Extended Outlook
To keep this really brief, the two biggest longer range models, the ECMWF and GFS are not in very good agreement over what will happen in the extended outlook.
It is appearing as if we will see some stronger ridging by the end of this coming weekend, but there is still plenty of time left to change that up.
Sorry for the longer post, but it had to be done! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest on the Bowling Green Weather forecast, and for any watches or warnings that come our way. Have a good one!