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Real-time Bowling Green Weather radar:
Today: Partly cloudy, with isolated storms possible. Highs around 86°F. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with storms remaining possible. Lows falling to around 65°F.
Today’s forecast looks to be pretty tough overall, as the short-term guidance is currently performing incredibly bad with the current set up across the region.
This gives me very little confidence in the models, or in any specific solution, which makes this process much more difficult. The pattern, however, does support at least isolated storms forming by this afternoon and evening, within a very warm and moist environment. Most models are showing this threat, but again, they are all doing very poorly at the time of me writing this.
One thing I do notice is that most of the models do agree that a weak, non-amplified shortwave trough will move quickly near our region, specifically to our north. This should be enough to spark off some storms. Because of the difficult to forecast convection, I have temperatures reaching the mid 80s.
There is a shot we hit the upper 80s (87-90), but I don’t see that happening tomorrow. Overnight, the storm chance will remain, as lows fall into the mid 60s.
Tomorrow: Hot, with a chance of afternoon storms. Highs around 89°F. Thur. night: Partly cloudy, with a storm chance remaining. Lows falling to around 67°F.
Tomorrow does look like it will be one thing: hot. And muggy.
Tomorrow will not necessarily feel like a legit sauna, but it will not feel pleasant. In the least bit. Southwesterly flow will become established across the region during the morning and afternoon hours; and under the influence of a ridge, temps will rise quickly into the upper 80s.
Additionally, though there doesn’t look to be significant forcing across the region, we should see some isolated storms pop up into the afternoon hours. This is a lot like a typical summer time pattern, so the storms may briefly be strong, but heavy rain and lightning would likely be the only threats.
Overnight tomorrow, the storm threat should remain, with partly cloudy skies otherwise. Lows falling into the mid 60s.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with showers and storms possible. Highs around 83°F. Fri. night: Mostly cloudy, with storms possible. Lows around 66°F.
Friday should be a bit more active than the days preceding it, as I expect showers/storms to be a bit more widespread.
The NAM and GFS both have been consistently showing a more noticeable and amplified shortwave moving to the west of the region Friday morning and into the early afternoon.
This looks as if it should create some cloud cover across the region, and spark off showers and storms into the afternoon. This will keep temps a bit lower than they would otherwise be, staying in the mid 80s.
Overnight, the storm threat will lessen, but still be present, with mostly cloudy skies. Lows falling into the mid 60s.
Well, that is all I have for ya! Happy hump day, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest real time Bowling Green weather information!