Severe Threat Increasing

Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:

Periods of sunshine has allowed our atmosphere to destabilize, resulting in an increased severe weather threat across the region this afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center has just issued a mesoscale discussion that includes south central Kentucky, stating that there’s a 60% chance of a severe weather watch being issued over the upcoming hours.  The area of concern is outlined below:

A parameter we often look at when forecasting the strength of convection is CAPE (think storm energy).  Readings as of 12:45pm over our area sit at ~2,500J/kg, which is more than sufficient to support severe storms…

Main threats with any storm that fires in this environment will be damaging winds and hail. Torrential rainfall will also be a concern, with flooding issues not out of the question.  Precipitable water values are amping up over the area, providing plentiful moisture for forcing to work with.

Storms should begin to settle down as we get closer to sunset, with the loss of daytime heating helping to stabilize our conditions.  Until that time comes, please stay weather aware.  We’ll be updating frequently @WxOrNotBG, so stay connected.