Severe Weather Afternoon Update

*Flash Flood Watch for Butler & Edmonson County thru early Friday morning*

Temperature values have climbed into the lower 80s across south central Kentucky, thanks to warm, moisture rich air streaming in from the southwest:

This has destabilized our atmosphere, which currently resides with CAPE (storm fuel) values of ~2,000j/kg (more than enough to support severe weather).  The more sunshine we see this afternoon, the more unstable our atmosphere will become.

Any storm that is able to fire in this environment will intensify quickly, bringing with it the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding.  A small threat of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Our main focus is later tonight, when a stout cold front is slated to plow east across the region, spawning a strong line of broken convection as it does so.  The current timing this is expected to occur is between 10pm – 2am.  The HRRR Simulated Radar model below loops every 2 hours from 7pm – 3am tonight:

As you can see, this model is in agreement with a potent line of storms transversing over south central Kentucky through this time.  All previously mentioned threats will remain in play through mid morning.

The latest SPC Outlook has pushed the Enhanced Risk a bit west of the area, placing all of the viewing area in a Slight Risk for severe weather through late tonight:

If you need a breakdown on what these outlooks mean, check out this piece from contributor Pierce Larkin: A Guide To The Confusing SPC Outlooks

Please stay up to date through the remainder of the day as this weather event unfolds.  As always, we’ll be updating @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx with the latest real-time weather information.  WKU students, keep in mind to follow @wkuCHAOS as well.

That’s all for the afternoon update.  Everyone have a great remainder of your Thursday, and stay safe!