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Real-time BG Radar:
Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms widespread. High of 77ºF. Tonight: Scat’d Storms. Low of 62ºF.
I must say, I am still recovering from the devastation of a UK loss in the Final Four on Saturday night. Though I have had several days to recover, the fact that Duke won the title last night makes it that much worse.
Oh well, at least the weather is entertaining! The next few days will feature several rounds of storms, but will also feature some extended springtime temps across the region, as we’ll be deeply in the warm sector of a low to our west. As you are heading to work and school, you’ll probably need the umbrella….and, yes, a pair of these…
Though the morning will be cloudy and rainy, the rain should scurry out of here by mid morning, and will give way to relatively nice conditions across the region. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy across the region, with an isolated sprinkle or two. Temps look to rise into the mid and upper 70s.
As we head out into the late afternoon, the latest guidance has hinted at a strong line of storms sliding in from our northwest. The HRRR Simulated Radar model below loops every hour from 4pm – 8pm this evening. It should give you a better idea of how this feature will behave:
The clouds from this activity will likely hold temps higher than they may otherwise be, with lows in the lower 60s. The SPC has us included in a ‘Marginal Risk‘ for severe weather this evening. We have a 5% probability of severe wind or hail occurring within 25 miles of any given point:
Wednesday: Scattered storms. High of 78ºF. Wed. night: Partly cloudy. Low of 61ºF.
This is definitely one of the tougher forecast periods that I have had in a good bit. There are a lot of things that make forecasting this week challenging and confusing, and the almost constant convection is gonna be one of em! Its got me like…
This day looks exspecially tough. Looking at the models, there is a pretty good spread on what exactly unfolds across the region on Wednesday morning, with the NAM and its Hi-Res counterpart disagreeing almost completely on this idea. The NAM likes the idea of showers and storms by 10am Wednesday:
Sometimes the models are like cats. They fight a lot and really need updates that they probably won’t get. Not that cats necessarily need upgrades, though. Part of the issue with this forecast is that the region will be very moisture laden, and this will allow thunderstorms to blow up along previous boundaries set up by the storms that occurred days before.
If we get some significant thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning and afternoon, it will significantly hamper any afternoon heating that we can reach. I see highs getting into the upper 70s easily with some sunshine, but that may change.
As we head into the overnight hours, we will see some clouds across the area ahead of the strengthening and approaching low pressure system. Winds will increase from the south and west, and thus, lows shouldn’t drop much further than the lower 60s.
Thursday: Warm, breezy and mostly cloudy. High of 81ºF. Thur. night: Increasing clouds, with thunderstorms late. Low of 65ºF.
Well, the low pressure system that has been influencing out weather as of late will finally make its approach on the region on Thursday. It will begin strengthening as it moves into the Great Lakes region of the country, and will drag a cold front along with it.
This will spark showers and storms out ahead of the front, some of which could be severe. This front will act to make things mostly cloudy across the region, but with a southerly breeze temps should easily get into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
The latest SPC Outlook places the W tier of the area under a ‘Slight Risk‘ for severe weather Thursday night into Friday morning. This mean that there’s a 5-15% probability that severe weather will occur with 25 miles of any given location:
As we head into the night, the cold front itself will begin to move through. Though it will have quite a bit of wind energy associated with it, storms will have very little instability to work with, and I think the chances are slim at best. Highest threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
We shall see. Lows will drop into the 60s Thursday night with the thunderstorms hanging around.
Thats all I have for now! Make sure to check out @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for the latest weather updates.