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Today: Partly cloudy skies. High of 40ºF / Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low of 33ºF.
Welcome to Monday, March 2nd, 2015. Otherwise known as: the start of another crazy meteorological week. This week looks to keep the trend of typical Kentucky weather. However, in comparison to the rest of the week, today looks rather nice.
We’re currently in between systems, so the colder conditions expected today won’t hang around for long. Clouds will be hit & miss for the start of the work week, but will gradually clear the region by late this afternoon.
Northerly winds will team up with cloudy skies to keep temps limited to ~40˚ across south central Kentucky. As we head into the overnight hours, things begin to get interesting. The models take temps into the low 30s by morning, which I think is realistic, due to the fact we don’t really get into southwesterly flow until daybreak Tuesday.
Tuesday: Cloudy, with rain. High of 61ºF. Tuesday night. Chaos begins. Heavy rain, with thunder possible. Low of 50ºF.
Well, our next weather maker will be approaching the region at this point. A strong area of low pressure will begin moving off to our north. This will support the development of showers across the region, and perhaps a few claps of thunder…
…yes, thunder.
Within the warm sector, warmer air will be advected into the region, thanks to southwesterly flow becoming established across the region. This will lead temperatures into the upper 50s before midnight (when daily highs end). The model below helps illustrate this:
Going into the overnight hours, things begin to get super dicy. The cold front that will be supporting heavy rainfall overnight will begin to approach the region towards dawn. It should move through before daybreak, and colder air will begin moving into the region.
Lows will fall to around 50.
Wednesday: Insanity – Rain, to a wintry mix – High of 62ºF ↓. Accumulations possible / Wed. night: Continued insanity, with some snow, sleet and freezing rain. Accumulations possible. Low of 15ºF
Okay, can I plea the 5th on this forecast? I have the forecast for tomorrow morning as well, and this stress may break me down. This looks like its gonna be by far the wildest 24-hours we have had since…well two weeks ago. Temperatures will spike into the lower 60s before the front comes through, and then will fall through the day into the 20s.
The front will then proceed to stall somewhere near us or just to our south. This is critical in determining our wintry threat. A wave of low pressure will ride the front, and will favor heavy precipitation to the northwest of its track. Depending on how far south and east the cold air gets, will depend on precip type.
Looking at the model runs this evening, confidence (at least with this forecaster) is increasing in the idea that we will see a winter storm Wednesday/Thursday. Precip types are gonna be an issue with this one, but it is looking like we will see a snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. Stay alert to forecasts as they are going to change over the next few days.
Just as a look ahead…late this week is gonna be cold, especially if we get a snowpack on the ground. If this storm system is significant Wednesday/Thursday, we could see a pretty cool stretch to open March.
So, thats all I have. Make sure to go follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx on Twitter for real-time updates on this week. Until next time….
