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Real-Time Bowling Green Radar:
This Afternoon – Mix of Sun & Clouds; Chilly – High 41º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Light Wintry Mix — Low 32º
3pm 41º – 6pm 39º – 9pm 34º – 12am 33º – 3am 32º – 6am 33º
Surface high pressure will continue its descent from the upper Midwest while bringing in cooler, drier air across southern Kentucky. In return, we’ve had some breaks in the clouds allowing some sunshine to make a much needed appearance this afternoon. Otherwise, conditions have remained on the chilly side with temperatures reaching the lower 40’s.
The forecast becomes a bit more interesting late tonight/early Thursday morning. While much of our night will feature mostly cloudy skies and cold temperatures in the lower 30’s, we’ll be watching a weak upper level disturbance eject from the Central Plains.
As this disturbance skirts eastwards across the TN Valley region late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, it will weaken considerably. While precipitation coverage will look decent early on, it will be somewhat deceiving as well. Drier air will ultimately control our precipitation chances; however the chance for a mixed bag of precipitation will remain possible. This takes me into Thursday morning….
Thu – Mostly Cloudy; Light Wintry Mix – High 38º / Thu Night – Mostly Cloudy; Cold – Low 30º
There’s pretty good model agreement with this weaker system from the GFS, NAM, & EURO (the main models we utilize when forecasting). Precipitation will break out from the west while pushing eastward across southern Kentucky early Thursday morning. As it treks closer to the area, the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain dry, prohibiting some of our precipitation chances.
A sleet/snow mix will breakout Thursday morning as temperatures hover around the freezing mark. Temperatures will slowly warm into the upper 30’s by the afternoon hours before all precipitation fizzles out/moves eastward.
A dusting-1/2″ of snow for Bowling Green seems reasonable, if anything. Of course, this is going to occur during your morning commute and could provide some slick travel. Please be cautious as you head out Thursday morning. Anything on the ground won’t hang around long as we get into mid morning, thanks to temps climbing above freezing.
Otherwise, look for cloudy and cold conditions the rest of Thursday with lows dropping right around 30º. Here’s a visual breakdown from the NAM model.
Fri – Partly Sunny; Cool – High 43º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Rain/Snow Likely – Low 32º
We’ll continue to experience an active weather pattern through the end of the work week. Friday will offer a brief break during the day as partly sunny skies join cool highs in the lower 40’s. While conditions will seem rather calm during the day/evening hours, we’ll be watching a low pressure system develop across the Gulf States.
There remains a lot of uncertainty with this system as to exactly what type of precipitation we’ll see and when that transition will occur. It should be noted that the EURO model has been calling for a wintry set up for some time now, but with a southern track over the last few runs, one might beg to differ. Here’s a forecast surface analysis by early Saturday morning.
From the data I’ve gathered now, a low pressure system will develop well to our south, while advancing eastward across the Gulf States. A decent amount of moisture will accompany this system as it takes this southern track. Rainfall will likely break out late Friday night/early Saturday morning before transitioning to a mix.
Temperatures will fall right around the freezing mark during this period before rising back into the upper 30’s, lower 40’s by Saturday afternoon. This will allow a transition back to all rainfall for the remainder of the event.
Overall, we’re missing a couple key ingredients with this set up. First and foremost, we need a colder air mass in place. Secondly, the southern track for this storm is ideal, but for this particular setup, it’s too far south. While it’s likely we see some sort of wintry mix, I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in much accumulation.
Of course each model run will change and you can count on us keeping an eye on things for you. But that’s all I have for this evening. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter.