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Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today – Partly Sunny – High 42º / Tonight – Cloudy – Low 30º
6am 20º – 9am 30º – 12pm 38º – 3pm 42º – 6pm 37º
The Topper football team takes on Army in just a few hours! Kickoff is at 11am. Make sure to bundle up if you’re heading to the game as temperatures will be in the mid 30’s at kickoff. The skies will be partly cloudy for much of the day. An isolated snow shower can’t be ruled out late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Very little to no accumulation is expected.
Sunday – Chance for Rain – High 44º / Sun Night – Rain to Snow – Low 30º
Much of Sunday will be rain free, however, by mid to late afternoon rain chances will increase thanks to a developing low pressure system to our south. Nevertheless, we don’t expect any travel issues Sunday evening as any precipitation that falls should remain all rain. The model below is valid for 6am Sunday morning, and displays the low pressure system developing to our southwest.
Monday – Light Snow Early – High 34º / Mon Night – Cold, Partly Cloudy – Low 18º
As this low pressure system tracks northeast into Georgia late Sunday night, it could result in the Monday morning commute becoming a bit tricky. A transition from rain to all snow will occur early to mid morning as cold air rushes in from our northwest.
This may put down a quick coating to an inch of snow. A few localized areas could see 2″… with locations north of Warren County, toward N Butler and Ohio County, having a better chance at seeing higher snow amounts gather on the ground.
With the cold temperatures we’ve experienced lately, a heavy snow shower could quickly coat the roads. Make sure to drive slow as you head out early Monday morning. Potential Impacts: BLACK ICE & Snow Covered Roads from snow.
Here’s the details on the potential snow:
The GFS model has consistently shown heavy snow potential (4 – 6 inches) in our area for the past week. However, the GFS has a cold bias in the Ohio Valley area and will typically have the change over to snow starting too soon, which can lead to higher snow total output.
The key point to take from the GFS is the placement of the heaviest axis of snow, which is located from Bowling Green through Lexington. The GFS has consistently shown this track and while it may fluctuate a bit, it does seem like this region will be in the best placement for both moisture and cooler temperature profiles.
The NAM model has continued to place the snow well north of the area and shows little to nothing over Bowling Green. This model has been the outlier so far. With that being said, this continues to prove there is discrepancy amongst the models.
The Canadian model shows snow totals of 1 – 2 inches from Bowling Green to Lexington. It keeps the heaviest totals right where the GFS believes they should be, but much lighter amounts. This seems to be most realistic.
Initial Thoughts: This will be another classic battle of the Rain/Snow line. The temperature profile for early Monday morning shows cooler lower levels of the atmosphere but above freezing upper levels.
The cooler lower levels may lead to some sleet before we can transition to snow. The key will be how fast can the column of air cools in order for the changeover to take place. We could very well end up with mostly a rain event in Bowling Green if the precipitation out-runs the cold air.
Timing: Rain will move in Sunday evening and begin to transition to sleet/snow early Monday morning between 3am – 6am.
Preliminary Accumulation Amounts:
***As always, winter weather forecasts are SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Any slight track shift in the low pressure system to our southeast could drastically change snow amounts Monday morning.
As we continue to analyze the latest data & compare it to what’s actually occurring in our atmosphere, we’ll have a better handle on this setup. Stay up to date with the latest weather updates throughout the weekend as our team will be updating frequently.
That does it for this morning, folks. As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter for the latest real-time weather information. Enjoy your weekend!