Are the Farmers Almanac Winter Forecasts Accurate?

Two of the most popular winter forecasts can be found in the Old Farmers Almanac and Farmers Almanac. But on what criteria do they base their forecast and how accurate are they?

How the Old Farmers Almanac makes their winter forecasts:

“Over the years, we have refined and enhanced that formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.”

Here is an excerpt from the Farmers Almanac winter forecast write up:

“We are “red flagging” the first 10 days of January and the first week of February along the Atlantic Seaboard for active wintry weather featuring bouts of heavy precipitation and strong winds. Another red flag timeframe for widespread wintry conditions is the middle part of March from the nation’s midsection to the East Coast.”

This seems to be more of a guess than a forecast based on empirical data.

In an article by the Penn State news, Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight is more than a little skeptical.

“The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero,” says Knight. “There’s no proven skill, there’s no technique that’s agreed upon in science to be able to do that.”

According to Knight, the Almanac’s secrecy is part of the problem.

“If you have something that’s really innovative and shows skill, then bring it before your peers,” he says. “You don’t have to show us everything in case you want to make a business out of it, but give us some idea.”

 

 

 

Opensnow.com compared the forecast of the Farmers Almanac and Old Farmers Almanac for 2013-2014 to what actually happened. Apparently their forecast wasn’t so hot after all.

 

Bottom line, don’t trust a forecast, especially a long range winter forecast, unless it is from a trusted meteorologist.

Red Flags:

• Forecasting the winter during the summer
• Secret formula for prediction
• Unknown source