Bowling Green Weather: Strong Storms Possible

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Regional Radar:

 

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny, Iso’d Storms – High 90º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy, Strong Sct’d Storms – Low 73º

3pm 90º – 6pm 87º – 9pm 81º – 12am 77º – 3am 64º – 6am 73º

It’s been another warm and humid day across southern Kentucky and conditions only look warmer through late week. An approaching low pressure system will work across the Great Lakes Region as its associated cold front moves towards the mid-Mississippi Valley. In return, much of the Ohio Valley will be under the influence of the warm sector.

Southwesterly winds will continue pumping in moisture for the remainder of this afternoon and evening. The cold front will advance eastward through tonight before arriving on our doorstep by early tomorrow morning. As this boundary edges closer to the Commonwealth, the trigger for scattered storm development will occur.

Some storms may be on the stronger, even severe side thanks to the potential for heavy rainfall, damaging winds, small hail and dangerous lightning. Time frame for our greatest threat looks to be from early evening to around midnight. The SPC continues to monitor areas just to our north and west as portions of this complex of storms is expected to reach severe criteria. Here’s a look at the latest SPC categorical outlook:

Outside of scattered storm chances through tonight, look for a warm and muggy one as lows dip into the lower 70’s.

Wed – Partly Sunny; Sct’d Storms – High 93º / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy; Strong Sct’d Storms – Low 73º

Wednesday will offer a bit of a forecasting challenge. One thing is for sure though; temperatures will be sweltering as highs warm into the lower 90’s with heat index values climbing near the century mark.

The main obstacle seems to be the significance of storm development throughout the day and into the evening hours. The latest model guidance continues to show plenty of moisture, instability and moderate bulk shear parameters near 35 knots. It certainly seems logical for some organized thunderstorm development capable of reaching severe criteria; however, the main question will remain if cloud cover can clear out allowing the atmosphere to grow more unstable.

With that said, look for ongoing chances for scattered storms early on then once again into the evening hours (if clouds can clear out through the afternoon). I think best coverage for storm activity will lie along and east of the I-65 corridor. The folks at SPC seem to be on the same page. The latest Day 2 outlook includes Bowling Green under a slight (think enhanced) risk for strong-severe storms.

Main threats with Wednesday’s storms will be heavy rainfall, damaging winds, hail and dangerous lightning. Otherwise, look for another mild and muggy night with temperatures in the lower 70’s.

 

Thu – Mostly Sunny; Iso’d Storms – High 94º / Thu Night – Partly Cloudy, Warm – Low 74º

Storm chances will significantly decrease in coverage by Thursday. However, slight chances for isolated development will remain possible throughout the afternoon hours as activity will be mainly diurnally driven.

Storms will have a tougher time firing up due to the dome of high pressure that will build into the region. This feature will be responsible for very warm conditions as highs will be scorching over the next several days. All in all, our Thursday shapes up to be a hot and humid one as the dog days of summer win out. Thursday night will feature partly cloudy skies with mild lows in the lower 70’s.

This is my advice. Enjoy a cold treat to stay cool…

That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter.Stay cool out there!