Monday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny; Iso’d Storms – Hi 84˚ / Tonight – Iso’d Storms – Low 70˚

3pm 84˚ – 6pm 80˚ – 9pm  76˚ – 12am 72˚ – 3am 70˚ – 6am 70˚

Outside of a few isolated storms this afternoon, we won’t have much to worry about.  A mix of sun and clouds should keep temps in the tolerable range, topping out in the mid 80s.  A disturbance will begin to slide southeast toward the region overnight, keeping hit & miss storms in the picture.

Tues – Partly Sunny; Scat’d Storms – Hi 90˚ / Tues Night – Scat’d Storms – Low 72˚

A cold front will approach from our northwest on Tuesday.  The surface model below, valid for 7am Tuesday morning, helps visualize this.  The front stretching from Wisconsin through Missouri will close in as it tracks southeast.

This forcing mechanism will interact with a warm, moist, unstable environment to fire off scat’d showers and thunderstorms.  The latest SPC outlook has included locations to our northwest in a slight (think enhanced) risk for severe weather Tuesday:

Main threats with any storm that fires tomorrow will be large hail and damaging winds.  The time frame for this threat will be from early afternoon – early evening.

Wed – Scat’d Storms – High 92˚ / Wed Night – Iso’d Storms – Low 72˚

A lingering disturbance will pester the region through Wednesday, keeping scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.  A bit more forcing with higher moisture should lead to more rain coverage, however, it’s anticipated to remain in a scattered mode.

That’s all for the afternoon update, folks.  As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx for the latest in real-time weather info.  Thanks for reading.