Tropical Update

Most of this weekend’s weather headlines have featured severe weather that has been ongoing across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Elsewhere across the world, there has been some tropical activity in both ocean basins.

Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center marked an area of showers in the center of the Atlantic Ocean as an item of interest. These showers are associated with a tropical wave that mas moved off of the western coast of Africa. This disturbance is currently very far from any land but the NHC has given it a 10% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression through the next 48 hours, and a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.

This disturbance is currently thriving in a narrow plume of moisture across the Atlantic Ocean. The rest of the Atlantic is under the influence of the very dry Saharan Air layer.  Check out the latest water vapor imagery:

This disturbance should have some serious trouble intensifying as it moves west into an area of better wind shear and some of that dry air. We will certainly keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile, things have been heating up in the Pacific Ocean over the fast few days. In the central Pacific there are a few weak disturbances, but farther east Hurricane Hernan has recently formed off the coast of Mexico.