Monday Afternoon Update

Real Time Regional Radar:

This Afternoon –Partly Cloudy, Isolated Thunderstorms, A Few Severe– High 88° / Tonight – Scattered Thunderstorms Early, A Few Severe – Low 66°

Good afternoon, currently winds out of the WSW are keeping things pretty warm with temperatures already in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points around 70° are responsible for making it feel muggy this afternoon. A cold front is currently positioned to our northwest across Illinois and Missouri and this front is expected to pass over us tonight bringing in cooler temperatures and a drier air mass.

This cold front will not come quietly though. The front will help to initiate thunderstorms (a few severe) later this evening into tonight. Here is the latest convective outlook from the SPC showing us in a slight (think enhanced) risk for severe weather.

We have a 15% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point.

There is a 5% chance of seeing large hail (>1″) within 25 miles of a given point.

There is plenty of heat and moisture around to create some instability in the atmosphere for any storms to work with this evening. We have seen a mix of clouds and sun across the area which will continue through the afternoon and aid in increasing instability. Wind shear is present south of the cold front which will help the storms to organize and keep their strength.

The main threat with any storms that become severe will be damaging winds.  There is also a chance for a few storms to produce hail, but this does not appear to a major threat at this time.

There are currently two ongoing areas of thunderstorms this afternoon. A line of thunderstorms has fired along the cold front in Indiana/Illinois/Missouri and is slowly moving to the southeast. These storms should weaken as they cross into Kentucky but could make it into southern Kentucky later. If the storms do hold together they would make it into our area before midnight.

To our south, clusters of strong thunderstorms are moving east across northern Tennessee and should stay to our south. Our area is caught between two areas of severe storms and it is hard to say if we will see many impacts  throughout the evening. It is possible we could see some storms pop-up later this afternoon ahead of the main line of storms and we will be watching closely to see if anything develops.

In addition to the severe threats, any storms we do see will have the potential to produce frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Here is the latest map from the WPC showing rainfall amounts from 7pm tonight through 7pm tomorrow. It looks like most areas will see less than a half inch of rain but there could be some locally higher amounts possible.

This cold front will not have much trouble continuing to push south tonight and we will not have to worry about the front stalling out. This means precipitation will push out of the area relatively quick tonight. As the initial line of strong storms passes us, the severe threat will diminish quickly. We will see some isolated showers and storms overnight but these will end by daybreak tomorrow.

Tuesday 7/15 – Mostly Sunny; Cooler – High 79° / Tue Night – Clear – Low 55°

If you are a fan of cooler weather, you will love what is in store behind this cold front. Unseasonably cool temperatures and much lower humidity will encompass the region beginning on Tuesday. We may see a few clouds left over tomorrow morning but these will clear out quickly with skies becoming mostly sunny during the afternoon.

Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow and keep high temperatures in the upper 70s. As we head into tomorrow night temperatures will drop into the middle 50s making for a chilly night. Check out the latest NAM model showing low temperatures tomorrow night across the region. This map sure doesn’t look like mid-July.

Wednesday 7/16 – Sunny & Beautiful – High 79° / Wed Night – Clear – Low 57°

Wednesday will be nearly identical to tomorrow as we will still be under the influence of the upper level trough and northwesterly surface winds. This means another beautiful day with sunny skies and a high in the upper 70s.  Perfect.

Look for another chilly night Wednesday night as lows hang in the upper 50s. The beautiful weather will continue on Thursday before we begin to see more chances showing up in time for the weekend.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Be sure to keep updated with tonight’s severe weather potential and have multiple ways to receive any severe weather warning. For real-time weather updates give @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX a follow on Twitter.