Strong-Severe Storms Possible

Real Time Regional Radar:

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 This Afternoon – Sct’d Strong-Severe Storms – High 89º / Tonight – Sct’d Storms; Mild – Low 70º

3pm 89º – 6pm 85º – 9pm 77º – 12am 74º – 3am 71º – 6am 70º

Chances for severe weatherwill increase significantly over the remainder of this afternoon and evening. An upper level trough and associated cold front is expected to work southeastward across the region later this evening, making the threat for strong storms possible.

Breaks in the clouds have allowed plenty of sunshine to filter into southern Kentucky as instability continues to rise. Strong southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph continue to pump in plenty of moisture and warmth as temperatures flirt with the 90 degree mark. Dewpoint temperatures will reach the upper 60’s and lower 70’s along with precipitable water values near 2.0”. Nonetheless, the atmosphere will offer very moist conditions and will be conducive for strong, even severe storm development.

The line of storms that develop along this cold front will be capable of producing torrential rainfall, damaging winds, hail and dangerous lightning. Also, an isolated, brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. The time frame for greatest concern will be between 3pm – 10pm.

The latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center keeps the entire Commonwealth under a “Slight” (think enhanced) risk for severe weather. This does include the city of Bowling Green. 

The SPC keeps us in a 30% probability of seeing damaging winds occur within 25 miles of a given point:

The SPC has also given us a 15% probability of seeing large hail (>1” in diameter) occur within 25 miles of a given point.

The tornado threat looks marginal, but still possible. SPC gives a 2% probability of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.

The latest precipitation forecast hints towards a moderate-heavy rainfall event with totals ranging from 1- 2”. Of course, locally heavier amounts will be possible for areas where stronger storms occur. This will prompt a higher concern for flooding issues later this evening.

Wed – Mostly Sunny; drier – High 85º / Wed Night – Mostly Clear; Pleasant – Low 64º

The aforementioned cold front that brought shower and storm activity across much of southern Kentucky will continue its southward movement through Wednesday. Any remaining activity will depart to our south along with the front as drier conditions prevail.

Surface high pressure will work eastward over the Great Lakes Region as skies begin to clear out by Wednesday evening. Mostly clear conditions will be expected overnight as temperatures cool into the low-mid 60’s.

Thu – Mostly Sunny; Nice – High 86º / Sun Night – Mostly Clear; Mild – Low 65º

Once again, the high pressure to our north will dominate our short term weather as dry and sunny conditions play out for Thursday. Highs will be a tad cooler and less muggy as temperatures reach the mid 80’s in Bowling Green. Another clear and comfortable night will be on tap as temperatures dip into the low-mid 60’s once again.

This trend will continue through Friday as highs begin to warm into the upper 80’s. The surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will begin to weaken and work eastward as winds begin to shift from our south. This will help bump temperatures and moisture back up as the summer time pop-up showers/storms make a return to the forecast.

That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. With the threat for severe weather looming, be sure to stay weather aware this afternoon and evening!