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Arthur Watch…Day 3
The big question in the tropics this week has become whether or not we will see this area of low pressure currently named Invest 91L become a tropical storm. IF it were to do so, this would become the first named storm of the season: Tropical Storm Arthur.
The Hurricane Hunters flew into this disturbance this morning and the data they collected will help aid model prediction over the next few days. 91L started to look a bit more organized on satellite imagery today and more precipitation was noted circling around the low.
The area of low pressure is currently located less than 100 miles of the eastern coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center believes this low is very close to becoming a tropical depression and they have given it an 80% chance of development over the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance of development over the next five days in their latest tropical outlook.
If this disturbance does become a tropical depression, look for Tropical Storm Watches to be posted across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
So will we see this become a tropical storm? At this point, it is still up in the air but don’t be surprised if we have a tropical storm on our hands at some point during this Fourth of July weekend. Latest model guidance shows 91L hugging the east coast as it moves north.
Models trending track of 91L closer to the coast, nothing to do w/ intensity. #chswx #scwx http://t.co/CCpfYz6EVO pic.twitter.com/xb2Ngaj1dT
— Dave Williams (@LCWxDave) June 30, 2014
Heavy rain would be the biggest threat from this tropical disturbance and the WPC is hinting at areas along the coast receiving around 2 inches of rain over the next 5 days.
