Monday Afternoon Update

Real Time Regional Radar:

This Afternoon 6/23 – Scattered Thunderstorms – High 91° / Tonight – Isolated Thunderstorms – Low 71°

Good afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have fired across the region and you can see the wide area of pop-up thunderstorms on the radar above. These storms are slowly moving NNE. There is not a severe threat with these storms but they are capable of producing brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds (<50 mph) associated with the heaviest downpours. Check out the latest visible satellite imagery which shows pop-up thunderstorms across the area pretty well.

Outside of these hit or miss thunderstorms we will see a pretty good field of cumulus clouds causing partly cloudy skies. High temperatures are on track to reaching the lower 90s once again as it is another hot and humid day.

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage some as we head into tonight, but we can’t rule out a few more stray storms as a building low level jet will keep pumping moisture across the region. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and lows in the lower 70s.

Tuesday 6/24 – Scattered Thunderstorms – High 86° / Tue Night – Isolated Thunderstorms – Low 68°

Storms will be more widespread tomorrow as an upper level trough and associated cold front cross the state. It looks like by daybreak tomorrow there will be a few isolated storms across the area with a much larger area of showers and thunderstorms to our west. This area of precipitation will slowly drift east  and we will see more widespread thunderstorm coverage by tomorrow afternoon.

Storms won’t have the support needed to produce severe weather but as we have seen many times during the past few weeks, precipitable water values will be very high allowing storms to produce very heavy rainfall. Here is a map from the NAM model showing precipitable water values in excess of 2″:

In addition to heavy rain, storms will produce lots of lightning and some of the stronger storms could produce gusty winds (<50mph).  Total rainfall accumulations tomorrow should range between a quarter to half inch although locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.

Outside of the storms tomorrow, expect mostly cloudy skies which will keep us a little cooler with highs in the upper 80s tomorrow. Ahead of the front we will see southwest winds around 5-15 mph during the afternoon. Precipitation will die off overnight as the front moves east of the area, but a few isolated storms can’t be ruled out with lows dipping to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday 6/25 – Isolated Thunderstorms – High 87° / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy, Stray Storm Possible – Low 69°

Even after the upper level trough and cold front move east of the area tomorrow we still won’t be able to shake rain chances by Wednesday. A stationary front will sit across Kentucky  providing a focal point for..you guessed it..pop-up thunderstorms during the afternoon.

 The good news is that temperatures will stay in the 80s on Wednesday with partly cloudy skies. Once we lose daytime heating, isolated storms will taper off by Wednesday night  with lows in the upper 60s.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. To keep up with rain chances over the next few days be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and WarrenCountyWX for real-time weather updates.