Storms Moving In

Real Time Regional Radar:

Good afternoon, we are currently watching a line of storms to our southwest that has formed in the warm sector of the area of low pressure to our west. Currently, there is a bit of instability for these storms to work with, but clouds have hung on pretty well to the west of I-65 which will limit the amount of energy for the storms to work with.

The SPC has just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our south that does not include Kentucky.

This line of storms will become less organized as it moves north into Kentucky as there is less wind shear for the storms to work with. Nevertheless, precipitable water values are still in the 1.6″-1.8″ range which will yield some very heavy rain. Wind gusts <50 mph are still not out of the question for us either.

Here is the latest convective outlook from the SPC which keeps us on the edge of the slight risk for severe weather. Most of the slight risk encompasses areas east of I-65, where they have had more time to destabilize under sunny skies.

We are still in a 2% risk for tornadoes within 25 miles of a given point with a 5% risk just east of us:

Here is the latest outlook for damaging winds which keeps us in a 15% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point:

The tornado threat does not look too high for us as there is not much helicity or “spin” in the atmosphere right now. The best chance for any stronger storms looks to be just east of I-65 where storms will hit a boundary between less stable and unstable air masses created by today’s cloud cover.

So here is what to expect:

-Storms move in between 12:30-2

-Main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds (<50 mph), and lightning

-Showers persist for a few hours afterwards

Follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates this afternoon.