Stormy Pattern Ahead

Real-Time Regional Radars:

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Today 6/9 – Partly Cloudy – High 81° / Tonight – Scattered Thunderstorms – Low 68°

Happy Monday!!! Wait, what? Is there really such a thing as a “Happy Monday”? Today, we’ll be situated between upper level ridging to the east as well as troughing to the west. This puts our region in a southwest flow for our Monday. Because of this, you can expect pretty nice conditions across the region during the day. Expect highs to be in the low 80s with partly cloudy skies.

As we get closer to the evening hours, the trough to our west will move just a little closer to the region. This places a low pressure system to our west, with an associated warm front located to the south. Since we’ll be north of the warm front, I expect most of the evening to remain dry, however an isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.

As the night wears on, we’ll see the aforementioned low pressure system move east. This will lift the warm front through the region. The front will provide lift over the region, as well as a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for thunderstorms to fire up across the region tonight. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could pack a punch.Lows will only drop to the upper 60s due to the passage of the warm front.

Tuesday 6/10 – Scattered Strong/Severe Thunderstorms – High 82° / Tue Night – Scattered Thunderstorms – Low 67°

On Tuesday, we’ll continue to look at stormy skies throughout the day. Some of the storms may be strong to severe on Tuesday afternoon. While the warm front lifts northward across the region tonight, instability values will increase in the wake of the front’s passage. This will enhance the potential for severe storms.

To add to the mix, the associated low pressure system will move east, closer to the region. This will enhance the flow from the southwest aiding lift. This means we could see some fairly widespread thunderstorms across the region, especially in the evening hours.

Wind speeds in the lower levels of the atmosphere also seem a bit suspect for severe weather. This leads me to believe the main hazard with any severe thunderstorms that form will be damaging winds. Lapse rates will also be sufficient for some marginally severe hail at the onset of initiation. However, I expect this will quickly evolve into a line of storms with damaging wind being the main threat.

A threat with any thunderstorms that form will be heavy rain. At times, this could be very heavy rain. We’ll see Precipitable Water values that are quite high for this time of year across the region. Thus, those places prone to flash flooding will need to monitor the weather closely.

Farmers be like, “Gimme that rain!”

Wednesday 6/11 – Scattered Showers – High 78° / Wed Night – Isolated Showers – Low 63°

A cold front associated with the low pressure system mentioned earlier will sloooooowly move across the region on Wednesday. Due to overnight thunderstorms and precipitation, I don’t expect thunderstorms to be an issue on Wednesday, as we’ll have no instability to work with.

However, the front will produce enough lift across the region to produce widespread showers. If a thunderstorm does develop, no severe weather is expected. However, higher rainfall rates may occur in thunderstorms. Expect a general decrease in shower coverage overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

So basically the weather on Wednesday looks gross?

Yeah, pretty much.

That should wrap up this post. Be sure to monitor the above radars for thunderstorms. Remember, if thunder roars, go indoors. Stay tuned regarding Tuesday severe weather potential. As always, keep up with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter for the latest weather news.