Active Weather Ahead

Real Time Regional Radars:

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This Afternoon – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Storms – High 83º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Storms– Low 67º

3pm 83º – 6pm 81º – 9pm 75º – 12am 70º – 3am 68º – 6am 67º

A strong surface low continues to work eastward across the Great Lakes Region while draping the associated cold front through portions of the Central Plains. With a high pressure anchored off the eastern coast and the approaching frontal boundary from the west, winds have kicked up quite a bit this afternoon as a nice southwesterly flow has brought breezy conditions with sustained winds around 10-15 mph in Bowling Green.

The remainder of this afternoon and evening will be like the past several days we’ve had as the atmosphere will be warm, muggy and moist. This will offer the chances for scattered storm development late this afternoon and evening as some storms could be on the stronger side.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to track into the Ohio Valley region through the overnight hours providing the additional lift needed for more storm activity. It appears that we’ll keep the chances in the forecast through tonight for showers and storms ahead of this front. Of course, much like the past week, no severe weather is anticipated as main threats will be brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Track any activity with the regional radars provided above.

 

WPC Forecast Map. Valid For Tuesday 1am. (Courtesy NOAA).
WPC Forecast Map. Valid For Tuesday 1am. (Courtesy NOAA).

 

Tue – Partly Sunny; Sct’d Storms – High 86º / Tue Night – Partly Cloudy; Mild – Low 68º

The frontal boundary will slowly edge eastward towards the Commonwealth through much of tomorrow as partly sunny skies take over by afternoon. You know the drill by now. The southwesterly flow will continue to keep us warm while pooling plenty of moisture across southern Kentucky.

Additional lift from this boundary will help spark more showers and storms ahead of the front once again along with some diurnally driven storms too. Muggy conditions will win out for our Tuesday as the same old story continues to be published. You got it. Scattered storms will be possible once again through the evening hours before activity diminishes by tomorrow night.

 

Yuck….

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Wed – Iso’d Strong/Severe Storms – High 89º / Wed Night – Thunderstorms Likely – Low 69º

Our weather pattern will remain stormy as the set up for Wednesday will offer a better shot at seeing strong-severe storms. Southerly flow will continue into our midweek as plenty of moisture will stream across the region. The strong low pressure system will continue its track eastward into the Ohio Valley Region providing plenty of lift for storm development. The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook has a similar idea and includes Bowling Green under a slight risk for severe storms.

 

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook. Valid For Wednesday.
Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook. Valid For Wednesday.

Precipitable water values will range from 1.4-1.6’’ across southern Kentucky showing very moist conditions for the area. At this time, the atmosphere will have plenty of instability as some sun is expected to make its way out Wednesday afternoon. Needless to say, the chance for strong-severe storms looks likely later Wednesday afternoon. With that said, primary threats at this point will be heavy rainfall, damaging winds and lightning.

Collage of Du Page Precipitable Water Map. Valid For Wednesday 7pm.
Collage of DuPage Precipitable Water Map. Valid For Wednesday 7pm.

That’s all I have for now, folks. With the threat for severe weather lurking by midweek, be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. We’ll see a very active weather period over the next few days and it will be important to stay weather aware. Wishing everyone a great evening!