Severe Weather Update

Real-Time Regional Radars:

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We are currently monitoring conditions across the region for potential severe weather this afternoon and evening.  A surface front is sagging south across the area, which could serve as a forcing mechanism for scattered activity to fire.  Widespread severe weather is not expected.  The image below provides a visual for better understanding:

The needed ingredients will be in place for scattered cells to initiate and rapidly intensify as they track southeast across our area.  Dewpoints in the 60s will coincide with high instability and sufficient shear to produce an environment capable of strong & severe convection.  This will all depend on if cells are able to fire across southern Kentucky, which still remains to be seen.

Here is the 4km NAM’s thinking for CAPE values (a measure of storm energy available in the atmosphere) this afternoon at 1pm.  As you can see, this model suggests values will be ~3,000+J/kg.  That’s significant for our area.  In simpler terms…if we see any cell take off in this environment, look out.

Main threats with today’s activity will be large hail and damaging winds.  Frequent lightning and heavy rain will also be possible.  The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center includes Bowling Green in a 30% probability of seeing severe hail (≥1″ in diameter) occur within 25 miles of a given point from this afternoon through late evening:

As we always say, please have MULTIPLE ways of staying informed should we see activity develop this afternoon.  We’ll update the blog as needed, however, more frequent updates can be found on twitter by following @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG.  Stay safe and have a great afternoon.