Monday Afternoon Update

Real-Time Regional Radars:

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Today 5/12 – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d PM Storms – High 87˚ /  Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d Storms Early – Low 66˚

3pm 86˚ – 6pm 80˚ – 9pm 72˚ – 12am 69˚ – 3am 67˚ – 6am 66˚

Temperatures have already reached into the middle 80s this afternoon as an upper level ridge holds its ground over the Eastern U.S. This warm, juicy air mass will allow for some thunderstorms to pop up later this afternoon. Coverage will be isolated much like yesterday and you can track these storms with the radars provided above.

These storms should dissipate as we lose daylight, but it would not be out of the question to see a stray thunderstorm overnight. It might not be a bad day to have an umbrella ready in case you get caught under one of these storms, just make sure it works first.

Tue – Partly Cloudy; Scat’d PM Storms – High 85˚ / Tue Night – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 60˚

Things will not be much different during the day on Tuesday. The upper level ridge will begin to move to the east as a front makes its way towards us from the west. However, we will still be under the influence of the ridge so another hot and humid afternoon is expected.

Pop-up thunderstorms are expected once again but coverage will be a bit better tomorrow due to some additional lifting from the cold front out to our west. By tomorrow night, things will get a bit more organized and we may see some clusters of showers and storms. These will be capable of delivering up to 0.25″ of rain with higher amounts in areas that see thunderstorms.

Wed – Showers & Storms Likely; Cooler – High 73˚ / Wed Night – Showers Likely – Low 48˚

The cold front and its associated upper level trough will slowly march across the area on Wednesday bringing cloudy skies and some rounds of showers and storms. It looks like we will see clusters of showers and storms during the morning and afternoon hours, with a broken line of storms trying to form later in the afternoon. Here is what the latest run of the 4KM NAM model thinks the radar will look like Wednesday evening:

In response to this threat for storms, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a slight risk for severe storms within 25 miles of a given point on Wednesday.

This does not look like a widespread severe weather threat, but some of the storms  could be strong to severe. The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and hail, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.

We could see an additional 0.5″-1″ of rain on Wednesday before the precipitation ends overnight. How cold we get Wednesday night will depend on how things clear out behind the front. If clouds hang on longer than expected lows will be in the lower 50s. If the clouds move off to the east pretty quickly, clear skies will allow for some of that cold air to sweep in with lows in the upper 40s.

Beyond Wednesday, the (relatively) cooler air will stick around through Sunday with high temperatures not even reaching 70 degrees. Rain chances will hang around until the weekend, but it looks like by Saturday night we will get to see some quieter weather.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon, for more frequent updates be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter. Enjoy the rest of your Monday.