Severe Potential Update

Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, Ky:

Real-time Regional Radars:

This Afternoon – Scat’d Storms – High 80˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 65˚

As expected, a few thunderstorms have initiated in the area this afternoon after what was a nice Sunday morning. Be sure to track the storms on the radar imagery provided above.

Given the sunshine we had this morning, our atmosphere is quite unstable. Thus, as mentioned this morning, I still think there is a possibility that a few more storms become strong with gusty winds and small hail. Some small hail has even been reported already in a storm near Morgantown. The lack of wind shear in the area will limit storms generally below severe criteria however.

This activity will die down as we lose the day-time heating, leaving us with a lesser chance of only isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening into the early overnight hours. See the loop of the HRRR model simulated reflectivity starting at 4pm for an idea of how it evolves:

After midnight, we’ll have to watch potential clusters of thunderstorms as they move through Western KY/TN toward our area. Several models indicate the possibility of a line of storms which will move into the region after 4am. Strong winds just above the surface could be brought down to the surface with any thunderstorms during the morning time-frame. This will create the threat of strong, possibly severe winds in association with any storms.

Mon – Scat’d Strong to Severe Storms – High 77˚ / Mon Night – Scat’d Strong to Severe Storms – Low 59˚

The forecast for Monday remains rather unchanged from this morning. An area of scattered showers and storms will likely be in the area during the morning hours, particularly before 10am. Again, any of these storms could produce some gusty winds along with heavy rain and lightning.

There will likely then be another lull in the activity before storms again move in, potentially even as early as noon. It is this round of thunderstorms I’m particularly concerned about. Data continues to suggest an environment favorable for severe storms with bowing line structures and isolated supercells both possible. Threats will include damaging winds, hail, and even isolated tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline the area under a “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. They also give the area a 30% chance of seeing severe weather withing 25 miles of you. This is certainly worth keeping your eye on.

Have a plan in place NOW so that you know what to do in case severe weather does come together. This would include checking the batteries in your NOAA weather radio and planning a safe location to go in the event of a tornado warning.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours before generally pushing east of our area by Tuesday morning.

Tue – Partly Cloudy, Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 78˚ / Tue Night – Partly Cloudy, Iso’d Showers & Storms – Low 49˚

The potential for severe thunderstorms will again exist Tuesday afternoon after a partly cloudy morning. There remain a lot more question marks with Tuesday’s potential than Monday’s. It looks like the setup may pose an increased threat of severe hail due to cold temperatures aloft.

Overall, the Storm Prediction Center has actually removed our area from the “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday. But I believe a few strong to severe storms still cannot be ruled out. We’ll continue to monitor this potential and provide updates.

By Tuesday night, the weather will finally take a breather, and so can we. However, an upper-level disturbance will hang around the area through mid-week. As a result, a few isolated showers and storms along with areas of clouds could hang around for a few days.

It is also worth noting that with the multiple rounds of thunderstorms, the associated heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flash flooding. By Wednesday morning, 2-4+” rainfall totals are expected in our region. In other words, no need to water your lawn today.

Please stayed tuned to the latest information by following @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx on twitter. Additionally, updates will be posted here on the blog as needed. That’s all for now folks, have a great evening.