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This weathers got me like:
This Afternoon – Sunny & YESSIRR – High 80˚ / Tonight – Increasing Clouds, Iso’d Storms – Low 55˚
3pm 79˚ ~ 6pm 73˚ ~ 9pm 67˚ ~ 12am 60˚ ~ 3am 56˚ ~ 6am 55˚
Nothing much to talk about for the remainder of today, folks. A cold front remains stalled out to our northwest, which has result in light, southwesterly winds across our proximity.
This will help make outdoor activities very appetizing, combining rays of sunshine to send highs in the mid – upper 70s. Here’s a look at how the current conditions are shaping up:
Overnight, available moisture will track into the region, which may be enough to fire off a few storms during the predawn hours of our Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. Regardless whether you see a stray storm or not, cloud cover will be on the increase.
Wed – Partly Sunny, Iso’d Storms – High 78˚ / Wed Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 59˚
The cold front will transition to a stationary front, not before slide a bit north of the Ohio River. This will serve as a focus for scattered showers & storms. I expected the majority of us to remain dry, however, a few stray areas of convection may impact us here in south central Kentucky.
On Wednesday night, the surface boundary will undergo yet another transition to a warm front, locating itself along northern KY/southern IN. This will allow southerly flow to amp up our moisture profiles, resulting in widespread showers and a few storms. Severe weather is not expected, however, strong winds, heavy rain and small hail will be possible.
Thu – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 72˚ / Thu Night – Storms Likely – Low 60˚
We’ll remain in the warm sector of the system as we get into Thursday, as weak disturbances pass overhead. This will keep scattered showers & storms in the picture for yet another day. My focus continues to be on late Thursday night into Friday, as the potential for strong and severe storms enter the fold.
This will be thanks to a deepening low pressure system cutting north across the Great Lakes, which will send a potent cold front surges west to east across south central Kentucky. As of right now, it appears that an intensifying squall line will organize as it plows across the viewing area. The GFS precip model below is valid for 1am Friday morning, and helps illustrate the weather setup we’ll be dealing with:
In case you missed the post this morning, the latest Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has placed us under an elevated risk for severe storms Thursday night, with a 15% probability of seeing severe weather occur within 25 miles of you:
Main threats with this system look to be damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and torrential rainfall. The most recent rainfall forecast suggests we could see anywhere from 1-3″ of rain from Wednesday – Friday morning. This is supported by the latest QPF output below:
That’ll wrap up the afternoon update. Get out & enjoy our beautiful conditions today, as our weather patterns look to take on a much wetter outlook for the last half of the week. As always, stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG for the latest in real-time weather info. Thanks for reading, and have a great rest of your Tuesday.