IT GON RAIN

#YOLO

Today 2/4 – Rain to Wintry Mix Likely – High 38˚ / Tonight – Wintry Mix – Low 32˚

6am 28˚ ~ 9am 33˚ ~ 12pm 37˚ ~ 3pm 38˚ ~ 6pm 37˚

Slick spots & patchy fog being reported this morning…take note, early commuters.

The umbrella.  A great invention.  If you have one, take it with you today.  A disturbance tracking  northeast from the Mississippi River Valley will advect in a moisture-rich airmass today.  We may catch a few rays of sunshine early before clouds and isolated showers take over by mid morning.

As the day progresses, widespread rain showers will take over the region with a potential changeover to sleet and freezing rain possible through the afternoon.  The precipitation is anticipated to be light & moderate for the most part, with embedded areas of the heavy stuff.  Have a look at the NAM simulated radar loop below, valid from 9am – 9pm, in 3-hour increments:

Overnight, temperature profiles will begin to fall in the upper atmosphere, which is expected to create a wintry mix of rain and sleet.  Temperatures hanging right around freezing look to inhibit any accumulations.  At least that’s my thinking.  If we see anything, it will be a spotty dusting – 1/2″, with a .10″ of ice not out of the equation.  Take your time on the evening commute.

Those of you located closer to the Ohio River (N Butler, Grayson, Ohio, Muhlenberg County) will have a different story to deal with.  Thanks to the leftover snow pack, temperatures are expected to hover right around freezing, thus resulting in the potential for .10 – .25+” of ice.  These locations are under a Winter Storm Warning (Muhlenberg, Ohio County) and Winter Weather Advisory (Grayson County) for good reason.  Have a look at the NWS image below for a better idea:

My main concern with this weather maker for south central Kentucky is our chance at seeing significant rainfall.  By the early morning hours of Wednesday, we could see values of 1-2+”.

Combine these values with areas hit with heavy rain/plentiful snow Sunday, and we could see some flooding concerns across portions of south central Kentucky.  The QPF model below is valid for rainfall amounts through 6am Wednesday….pretty damp:

Wed  – Cloudy, Iso’d Flurries – High 34˚ / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 21˚

Northwesterly winds will filter in behind a low pressure system exiting off the east coast.  This will keep temperature values limited to the low – mid 30s.  I think enough moisture will remain in place to keep a nice cloud deck in place, perhaps even a few flying snow flakes.  Overall…a dreary, chilly day.

Thu – Partly Cloudy – High 28˚ / Thu Night – Cloudy – Low 20˚

More of the same.  Light northwesterly winds will suppress temp values to the upper 20s.  The good news is that we may catch a few rays.  Clouds will begin to increase again on Thursday night, ahead of our next weather maker.

Another tricky system will work in on Friday night, bringing with it another shot at snow.  There’s no need in getting too excited, however, there is potential for a large portion of the Bluegrass State getting in on the action.  We’re still wayyyy too early to mention anything specific.

That’s all for the morning update.  Stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx & @Wx_Or_Not for more frequent weather information.  Enjoy your Tuesday, and stay dry…