Cold Today…Winter Weather On The Horizon?

“You kids wouldn’t happen to have a cup of warm water, would ya??”

*DON’T TRY THIS TODAY*

Today – Sunny & COLD – High 32 / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 20

7am 19 ~ 9am 25 ~ Noon 30 ~ 3pm 32 ~ 6pm 29 ~ 9pm 26

Arctic high pressure will move directly overhead today, giving us sunny skies to go along with a bitter cold feel to the air. Northerly winds of 5-10mph (a few 15mph gusts possible) will make wind chills a factor as well. In short…DRESS WARM TODAY.

Mon – Increasing Clouds, Iso’d PM Showers – High 39 / Mon Night – Scat’d Wintry Mix – Low 30

Cloud cover will slowly increase through the first day of the work week, as high pressure advances off to our east. Southerly flow will help temps rebound slightly, but it’s nothing to get excited about.

The real story that will claim the weather headlines will be Monday night – Wednesday morning, as an upper level low tracks from the Texas panhandle into Florida. This will spurn a surface low that will track to our south, potentially giving us our first accumulating winter precip of the season.

Tues – Scat’d Wintry Mix – High 38 / Tues Night – Scat’d Wintry Mix – Low 23

A light, wintry mix is forecast to start out our Tuesday, with a transition to all rain expected by midday, as temps climb above the freezing threshold of 32 degrees. A major concern for me is the Tuesday morning commute. Go ahead and take note of that now. With temperatures below freezing between 3-7am, we could experience some travel limitations.

Several question marks still remain, however, its much better to be prepared before time. You can view the surface low tracking to our south on the pressure model below, which is valid for 12pm Tuesday. Notice how its counter-clockwise motion is filtering Gulf moisture to its cold side (north and west):

Surface pressure and precipitation valid 12pm Tuesday — Surface pressure & precip model valid 12pm Tuesday

As far as accumulations are concerned, I think many of us could get in on a dusting up to 1/2″. I’ll continue to watch the models closely, as I’m sure the forecast will need updates as the latest data is released. The most recent Euro model is provided, and likes the idea of minor accumulations (dusting – 1″) for south central Kentucky through 6am Wednesday morning.

Euro snowfall model accumulations — Euro model total snow accumulation through 6am Wednesday

That will do it for the Sunday update, folks. I’ll be back at my usual time tomorrow morning with a fresh update on our winter weather! Have a great end to the weekend, and thanks for reading.