Tropical Storm Karen Update

Tropical Storm Karen is still alive and kicking in the Gulf this morning.  Expected landfall remains along the Gulf Coast, with locations from Louisiana to Florida under a variety of weather alerts.  The blue lining along the southern edge of Louisiana indicates those that are currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.  The pink highlight along the Gulf coast represents a Hurricane Watch, with the light green displaying a Tropical Storm Watch.  You can see for yourself on the model below:

The timing for this event is still in question, however, the majority of models are in somewhat agreement that landfall will take place between Saturday and Sunday morning.  You can view the exact timing forecast on the model below, which was put out earlier today by the National Hurricane Center:

Main threats with this system still seem to be flooding and torrential rainfall, with 2-4ft storm surge not out of the question.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible, with parameters suggesting the marginal potential for brief tornado spin-ups.  Damaging winds will also be a threat, as a few along the coast could experience winds in excess of 60+mph.  The image below illustrates the probability of Tropical Storm strength wind gusts.  It seems that those along the SE coast of Louisiana will feel the brunt of the impact:

Popular destinations that remain in the path of this tropical cyclone include all of those I mentioned yesterday.  Panama City Beach, Destin and Ft. Walton, FL remain under the gun, as well as Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, AL.  Gulf Port, MS and New Orleans, LA are also in the path of this weather maker.  I know several folks are traveling south for Fall Break.  Even though this system does not warrant the evacuation of any coastal areas, this is still a serious weather situation that EVERYONE should remain aware of.  If you’re going south, STAY ALERT of this pending weather event.