Unsettled Pattern Begins

Today – Partly Cloudy, Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 81 / Tonight – Iso’d Storms – Low 63

7am 62 {} 10am 73 {} 1pm 78 {} 4pm 81

Upper level low to our southwest will open up and travel toward the Ohio Valley today, supplementing an environment conducive for scattered shower and storm development.  Other than that, our region should remain partly sunny and quiet.  Severe weather is not expected to be supported by this setup.  The 700mb (10,000ft) model below illustrates moisture streaming over us from the southwest at 9am:

Thu – Partly Sunny, Scat’d Storms – High 81 / Thu Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 60

7am 65 {} 10am 74 {} 1pm 78 {} 4pm 80

Southwest flow aloft will keep a foundation for isolated to scattered convective development in the forecast.  Our atmosphere will remain moist and unstable, with peak heating during the afternoon supplementing the best environment capable of producing measurable rainfall.  Outside of that, we’ll keep it partly sunny and tolerable.

Fri – Partly Sunny, Iso’d Storms – High 86 / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 67

Another day of partly sunny skies and isolated storms, as upper disturbances remain caught up in the southwest flow aloft, which will continue to churn a damp airmass over us here in south central Kentucky.  A strong surface low looks to wrap up over the Midwest on Saturday, sending an occluded front across our proximity.

This will send precipitation chances on the increase Saturday afternoon – Sunday morning, with the exact timing of the passing of the front leaving questions regarding the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.  I’ll continue to monitor the latest data, and inform you of the timing as necessary.  The GFS thickness model below is valid for 1am Sunday morning.  As you can see, this suggests sufficient moisture advancing east across our proximity at this time:

That will be all for now, gang.  I’ll be back this afternoon with fresh analysis of the latest data.  Until then, enjoy your Hump Day, and thanks for reading!