Winter Arrives with Warmer Weather

Happy Saturday folks! Let’s go ahead and acknowledge that at least some of us have last minute holiday shopping to do. The good news is that Winter begins with warmer weather across WABBLES (Winter officially starts tonight) and it will be fairly comfortable for us to finish our shopping. It isn’t exactly t-shirt weather for most of us, however temperatures will be considerably more mild than you might expect in late December.

Surface analysis showing high-pressure across WABBLES. (Unidata Software/NWS/NOAA)

As has been the case the last couple of days, persistent high-pressure dominates the Ohio Valley. This has been resulting in generally calm weather. This high-pressure is expected to start sliding eastward today and this will result in warmer air to our South to return to the WABBLES region. It’s not looking like a scorcher or anything, but temperatures should reach about 50 degrees today. Some clouds may start drifting in with the increasing moisture but any rain chances appear to be holding off until Sunday-Monday. Temperatures will fall back into the mid 30s overnight Saturday.

Model guidance for Saturday’s high temperatures. (NWS/Meteorological Development Lab)

Sunday

A low-pressure system is likely to develop along the Gulf Coast States and pass just South of WABBLES. Rain chances will increase Sunday as the northern edge of the precipitation drifts very close to the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Significant rainfall totals are not expected locally with accumulation of perhaps a quarter of an inch. Temperatures will again be mild and in the 50s.

GFS forecast model keeps precip South of WABBLES (GMU/GrADS/COLA)

NAM model guidance brings precip barely into southern KY. Not a washout either way. (NOAA/SPC)

Next Week (Christmas!)

When you think of Christmas many people tend to imagine a cold day with snow blanketing the world around them, perhaps spending time with loved ones by the fire. Here in WABBLES world it will be greater than 60 degrees and sunny. Spoiler alert, that won’t get us a white Christmas and it may be more reasonable to spend time with loved ones outside than by the fireplace. That’s the forecast though. Following the glancing blow from the system on Sunday we will be locked in a cut-and-paste forecast of highs in the upper 50s-low 60s and lows in the 40s for most of next week. Christmas Day specifically looks to top out around 63 degrees with sunny skies.

Whether you were wishing for a “white Christmas” or a warm Christmas have a happy and safe almost-Christmas weekend!