Fairly Pleasant Weekend in Store Across the Region

Happy weekend, folks! I hope all of you had an awesome week, and were able to celebrate the 4th of July with family and friends. I celebrated with my fiancée and her family, and it was a good time! The weather this past week, though, wasn’t the best. I will say, at least it wasn’t in the 90s everyday with 70 degree dewpoints!

The past couple of days were more unpleasant than their predecessors, especially yesterday. This weekend is looking much better.

Large Scale Set up

Well, the weather has been largely driven and dominated by a feature that isn’t even remotely close to use right now. There is currently an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure across the western US, and this has kept us well within northwesterly flow and on the eastern side of the ridge.

This is the mid-level analysis from last evening. The ridge to our west is very, anomalously strong, and is helping to drive much of the eastern third of the country’s weather. h/t SPC

This has sent plenty of systems our way over the past few days or so, with multiple cold fronts rolling through the region; one on Thursday night and then another last night. It has been an active pattern. Luckily, it does look like we’re gonna get a bit of a break over the next couple days.

The anomalously strong ridge looks to slowly build just a bit northward and then eastward, pushing the trough further south and east. This is already augmented by a disturbance moving through last night, with its associated cold front slowly moving southward.

As you can see, the cold front has made it to our doorstep and is ready to pass through. h/t COD Weather

This northwesterly flow should keep keep higher moisture content to our south for a couple of days, before it returns again on Monday ahead of a weaker system and associated weak front.

That system will likely take forever to get here on Monday, and right now it looks like the front may stall a bit to our north, which would likely send a round of two of thunderstorms our way between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. Temps should also warm up just a bit by this point, with increased humidity as well.

What does this mean for you?

Well, it means this weekend is looking much better than the previous days have been. Yesterday afternoon wasn’t too fun. Mid and upper 80s with mid 70 dewpoints creates an environment that is both favorable for thunderstorms and not fun to be outside in.

The HRRR model agrees with other model guidance in placing highs in the mid 80s this afternoon. h/t pivotalweather.com

With the passing of this cold front, don’t expect temps to get too much higher than the mid 80s until Monday, where we look to make it up into the upper 80s or just over the 90 degree mark. Storm chances look to remain at a minimum until Monday night at the earliest. It is to be seen whether or not we see storms on Tuesday, but if this forecast went that far, I would go with isolated storms now and see what the models are painting later.

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly sunny, with highs around 86°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies with lows around 64°F.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, with highs around 86°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies with lows around 67°F.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies, with highs around 90°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies and isolated storms possible. Lows around 70°F.

Have a great day, folks! I will be back on here next Sunday (July 16th), as I am heading to Boulder, CO for the next week for an Undergraduate Leadership Workshop! Thanks for checking into wxornotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather information throughout the day.