Heavy Rain and Storms Expected Today

Discussion

The forecast for today is just a bit tough, but in comparison with what Friday’s forecast was, this is nothing. That forecast was ridiculous, with significant danger had the threat been realized, but it wasn’t realized. Oh well! Here we are today, with another tough forecast. Models have not handled the current convection to our east very well at all thus far today, lending little confidence to their individual solutions.

The basic set up features a highly amplified large scale system centered across the south-central Plains. This is associated with predominantly southerly flow in the mid and upper levels, and strong jet streaks. These are drawing in a strong low-level jet, and this is largely one of the driving forces behind the longevity of the heavy rainfall to our west.

The large scale system that is causing all of this. h/t SPC

The remnants of this rainfall are moving towards us this morning, and are really knocking on our doorstep now. However, it should be a little while before we see rainfall. These storms are moving to the north-northeast, as mean mid-level flow here is from the south-southwest, and that is what is driving the motion of these storms.

Models are not confident on what happens with this complex of thunderstorms, as noted by their inconsistency in solutions from model to model. I think that the HRRR probably has the best handle on this, but I’m not even very sold on that at the time. I think the expectation should be that this area of rainfall should move slowly into a region that is warming and destabilizing by the early afternoon.

Expect highs this afternoon to approach the mid 80s. h/t pivotalweather.com

The weakening gust front on the front of this complex should be enough to fire off another line of storms ahead of this rain. This is a relative consensus in the models, as they all show something kinda like this, and that lends a bit of confidence to it.

The HRRR’s depiction of what to expect this afternoon and evening. h/t pivotalweather.com

Because of this risk, the SPC has placed us into a Slight Risk for severe weather this afternoon.

It shouldn’t get too warm, at least not like yesterday, ahead of this line of storms. Expects highs rising into the mid 80s. Overnight, look rain to possibly move back into the region along the cold front itself.

Monday and Tuesday look to calm things down, and be much cooler. I don’t think clouds clear very much by tomorrow afternoon, and this should only allow temps to rise into the lower 60s. Expect breezy conditions to make it feel cooler than it is, as well.

By Tuesday, sunny skies should return as we end up in between large scale systems. Tuesday actually looks pretty pleasant, and expect for temps to respond into the mid 70s.

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. A few may be strong to severe. Highs around 83°F. Overnight, expect storms to decrease gradually. Lows around 56°F.

Wake up: 🌥 74°F
Lunch hour: 🌥/⛈ 83°F
Evening time: 🌥/⛈ 73°F

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Highs around 65°F. Overnight, look for clouds to gradually clear, with lows around 49°F.

Bus stop: 🌥 56°F
Lunch hour: 🌥 65°F
School is out: 🌥 63°F
Evening time: 🌥 59°F

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, with highs around 74°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 54°F.

Bus stop: 🌤 50°F
Lunch hour: 🌤 65°F
School is out: 🌤 74°F
Evening time: 🌤 70°F

Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great Sunday!